Bitcoin Market Analysis - February 15, 2026
Author: Bob Mason
Published: February 15, 2026
Key Highlights
- Bitcoin (BTC) rebounds above $70,000 as US inflation cools, increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut.
- US BTC-spot ETFs see $15.1 million in daily inflows, but a four-week outflow streak limits upside potential.
- Progress on the Market Structure Bill in the Senate supports a cautiously optimistic medium-term outlook for BTC.
Market Overview
Bitcoin has rebounded from a low of $65,000, reclaiming the $70,000 mark for the first time in four trading sessions. This recovery is attributed to softer US inflation data, which has raised expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June.
US CPI Report and Its Impact
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a decrease in the annual inflation rate from 2.7% in December to 2.4% in January, which was below the expected 2.5%. Core inflation also eased slightly, contributing to increased speculation about a Fed rate cut. The chances of a June rate cut rose from 64.6% to 68.6% following the CPI report, which has positively influenced BTC demand.
ETF Market Dynamics
Despite the positive sentiment, the US BTC-spot ETF market has experienced a four-week outflow streak, with notable outflows from major funds such as the iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund. However, the recent $15.1 million inflow on February 13 indicates a potential shift in institutional interest.
Upcoming Economic Data
Key economic data releases in the coming week, including the FOMC Minutes and the US Personal Income and Outlays report, are expected to influence BTC's price trajectory. A larger-than-expected core PCE price index could temper rate cut expectations, while a lower GDP print might support BTC prices.
Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis
The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index remains in the Extreme Fear zone, indicating bearish sentiment despite the recent price recovery. Technical indicators show that BTC is trading below its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting a bearish bias. However, oversold conditions may lead to a rebound.
Outlook
The short-term outlook for BTC remains bearish due to ongoing ETF outflows and potential negative economic data. However, the medium- to long-term outlook is cautiously optimistic, supported by the potential passing of the Market Structure Bill and expectations of Fed rate cuts. A sustained move above $75,000 could signal a bullish trend, while a fall below $60,000 would reinforce bearish sentiment.
Conclusion
In summary, while Bitcoin has shown resilience in reclaiming the $70,000 level, various factors including economic data, ETF flows, and legislative developments will play crucial roles in determining its future price movements. Traders should remain vigilant and monitor these indicators closely.