Morning Wrap - Wall Street Records and Oil Stabilization (01.05.2026)
On May 1, 2026, Wall Street indices concluded the previous trading session positively, recovering from losses incurred in the prior two days and achieving new all-time highs. The US500 index opened higher, trading above 7250, reflecting a 0.18% increase, while the US100 index rose by 0.12% to reach 27630 points. Most European markets were closed due to Labor Day, with the UK100 index gaining 0.16% ahead of the cash market opening.
Apple's Strong Q2 Fiscal Results
Apple Inc. reported robust Q2 fiscal results for 2026, with earnings per share (EPS) of $2.01, surpassing expectations of $1.93, and revenue of $111.18 billion, exceeding the forecast of $108.92 billion. The company experienced a significant 20% growth in iPhone sales. Following the announcement, Apple shares saw a slight increase of 2.44% in after-hours trading.
Japan's Economic Indicators
Japan's Manufacturing PMI reached a four-year high, primarily driven by a surge in the inventory index due to the ongoing Middle East crisis, rising to 55.1 from 51.6. The Japanese government signaled mixed messages regarding potential currency intervention as the Yen briefly spiked above the 160 level. The USDJPY pair dropped to 155 but later rebounded to around 157. Senior Ministry of Finance official Atsushi Mimura advised caution among speculators during the Golden Week, indicating that the Yen's excessive weakening is speculative.
Tokyo's inflation rate for April was reported at 1.5% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 1.6%, but up from 1.4% in March. Core inflation also came in at 1.5%, below the anticipated 1.8%, providing the Bank of Japan (BoJ) with some leeway regarding interest rate hikes.
Geopolitical Developments
In geopolitical news, former President Donald Trump received a briefing on potential bombing targets in Iran, which includes plans for strikes on infrastructure and securing the Strait of Hormuz.
Australian and New Zealand Economic Updates
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to implement its third consecutive interest rate hike next week due to rising inflation expectations. Meanwhile, New Zealand's consumer confidence index fell to a three-year low, driven by a 30% increase in fuel prices, dropping to 80.3, significantly below pre-pandemic levels.
The AUDNZD currency pair continues to trend upward, testing the 1.22 level, with potential movements projected between 1.30 and 1.38 based on historical trends.
Currency and Commodity Markets
The EURUSD pair is slightly retreating to 1.1720, following comments from Christine Lagarde about a potential interest rate hike in June, contingent on forthcoming data. In contrast, Morgan Stanley has adjusted its expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike to 2027, complicating forecasts until new actions from Kevin Warsh are observed.
Deutsche Bank has projected that gold prices could nearly double to $8000 per ounce over the next five years, driven by strong demand from emerging market central banks, particularly from countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Egypt, as part of a broader trend of dedollarization of global reserves. Currently, gold is rebounding slightly, trading near $4600 per ounce.
Brent crude oil prices are stabilizing after recent volatility, opening at $111 per barrel, consistent with previous days' closes. WTI crude has seen a pullback, currently trading at $105 per barrel.
Conclusion
The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic as Wall Street continues to reach new heights, while geopolitical tensions and economic indicators from Japan and Australia warrant close monitoring in the coming weeks.