Ceasefire Uncertainty Keeps Markets on Edge Ahead of PMIs
Author: Martin Lam
Date: April 23, 2026
Summary
U.S. President Donald Trump has extended the ceasefire with Iran while awaiting a new peace proposal from Tehran. However, tensions have escalated as Iran seized two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran stating that peace talks cannot resume unless the U.S. lifts its port blockade.
Market Focus
The primary focus today is on global manufacturing and services PMIs. The market anticipates a modest easing in the U.S. April manufacturing PMI to 52.5, while the services PMI is expected to be at 50.3. A drop below 50 in the services PMI could raise concerns about U.S. economic momentum, while a reading above 52 would support the soft-landing narrative. The Eurozone's April flash PMI is also projected to weaken slightly to 50.8 due to high energy costs impacting industrial activity.
Global Market Review
Following the ceasefire extension, U.S. equities saw gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs. The Dow Jones increased by 0.69%, the S&P 500 by 1.05%, and the Nasdaq by 1.64%. The U.S. dollar strengthened amid ongoing uncertainty regarding U.S.-Iran relations.
Gold prices rebounded by 0.55% to $4,737.78 per ounce as investors anticipated potential resumption of U.S.-Iran peace talks. Oil prices also rose, supported by declining U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories, alongside reports of military actions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Key Economic Events
- 07:00 AU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash APR
- 08:30 JP Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash APR
- 16:00 EU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash APR
- 16:30 GB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash APR
- 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims
- 21:45 US Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash APR
Market Analysis
EURUSD
Current Price: 1.1709
Resistance: 1.1773/1.1835 | Support: 1.1674/1.1624
The EURUSD pair is under pressure due to a stronger dollar and stalled U.S.-Iran diplomacy.
GBPUSD
Current Price: 1.3500
Resistance: 1.3555/1.3603 | Support: 1.3432/1.3395
The GBPUSD pair is experiencing mild pressure amid geopolitical uncertainty.
USDJPY
Current Price: 159.45
Resistance: 159.71/160.04 | Support: 159.03/158.69
The USDJPY pair remains firm, with intervention concerns persisting.
US Crude Oil Futures
Current Price: Above $92
Resistance: 101.06/105.00 | Support: 89.31/84.37
Oil prices are sensitive to geopolitical headlines, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Spot Gold
Current Price: $4,736
Resistance: 4784/4811 | Support: 4695/4667
Gold is expected to remain range-bound amid mixed market forces.
Bitcoin
Current Price: Above $78,000
Resistance: 79478/80172 | Support: 76613/76067
Bitcoin's price is supported by renewed institutional buying, although geopolitical tensions persist.
Conclusion
The market remains on edge due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding U.S.-Iran relations, while awaiting key economic data releases that could influence market sentiment.