Weak Payrolls Meet Surging Oil Prices Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data
Summary
In February, the U.S. employment figures showed an unexpected decline, with a loss of 92,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4%. This disappointing report has led investors to increase their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in June.
Simultaneously, oil prices have been on a significant upward trajectory, with WTI crude oil prices soaring over 12% last Friday and an additional 20% increase observed this morning. This surge in oil prices is raising concerns about inflation.
Market focus is currently on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data. The heightened geopolitical risks are exacerbating inflation fears. Additionally, investors are keeping an eye on Germany’s January Industrial Production data and the Eurozone’s March Sentix Investor Confidence Index, which is expected to show a fifth consecutive monthly gain since July.
Global Market Overview (09/03/2026)
The three major U.S. stock indices experienced declines on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.95% to 47,501.55, marking its largest weekly percentage drop since April 2025. The S&P 500 also declined by 1.33% to 6,740.00, reflecting its worst weekly performance since mid-October. The U.S. Dollar saw a slight decrease in volatile trading but ended the week up 1.22%, its largest weekly gain since mid-November 2024. The Euro rose by 0.1% against the dollar to 1.1618, although it suffered a 1.7% weekly decline, the largest since April 2024.
In commodities, gold prices increased as the weak U.S. jobs data sustained hopes for a Fed rate cut, with spot gold rising 1.84% to $5,169.92 per ounce, despite a cumulative weekly drop of 2%. Crude oil prices surged due to escalating conflicts involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz severely restricting supply and prompting production cuts from major Middle Eastern producers.
Key Events Today
- 09:30 - CN CPI & PPI MoM FEB
- 15:00 - EU GERMANY Industrial Production MoM JAN
- 17:30 - EU Sentix Investor Confidence MAR
Market Analysis
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.1653/1.1712 | Support: 1.1459/1.1383
EURUSD ticked up 0.1% to 1.1616 but recorded its worst weekly drop since April 2024. The pair is currently trading under a descending trendline, seeking stability above the 1.1459 support level.
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.3342/1.3420 | Support: 1.3218/1.3139
GBPUSD gained 0.42% to 1.3411 as Fed rate cut bets moved forward. The pair remains confined within a descending channel.
USDJPY
Resistance: 159.74/160.36 | Support: 157.66/156.86
USDJPY fluctuated as broad USD weakness and safe-haven flows balanced yield differential pressures. The pair maintains a bullish posture.
US Crude Oil Futures (APR)
Resistance: 107.74/110.27 | Support: 101.75/99.17
WTI Crude exploded over 20% at Monday’s open, hitting a multi-year high of $111.24 due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Resistance: 5200/5284 | Support: 4994/4927
Gold traded near $5,116, showing resilience above the 5,062 Fibonacci level.
Dow Jones Futures
Resistance: 47853/48247 | Support: 46826/46522
Dow tumbled 0.95% to 47,501.55, marking its sharpest weekly percentage drop since April 2025.
NASDAQ 100
Resistance: 25117/25317 | Support: 24274/24070
NASDAQ dropped 1.59% as weak jobs data and escalating geopolitical risks hammered risk appetite.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: 68285/69644 | Support: 64230/62525
Bitcoin fell toward $67,000 as macro pressures and global uncertainty pushed sentiment into “Extreme Fear” territory.
Conclusion
The current market environment is characterized by weak employment data, surging oil prices, and heightened geopolitical tensions, all of which are contributing to a complex economic landscape. Investors are advised to remain vigilant as they navigate these turbulent conditions.