Silver Price Outlook: A COMEX Default Could Push Prices Above $200
Author: AG Thorson
Published: February 06, 2026
Overview
The article discusses the potential for a significant increase in silver prices, possibly exceeding $200 per ounce, due to looming delivery issues at the COMEX exchange. The author draws parallels to historical market behavior during the late 1970s and early 1980s, suggesting that current market conditions may lead to a similar explosive rally.
Looming COMEX Silver Crisis
Clive Thompson's analysis indicates that the COMEX could run out of deliverable silver as early as March 2026. As of February 4, the exchange has only 103 million ounces of registered silver available for delivery, while open interest stands at approximately 429 million ounces. If 25% of these open contracts demand physical delivery, the exchange could face a default. Even if the situation is managed in March, delivery pressures may resurface later in the year.
Potential Price Surge
The author believes that a failure to deliver physical silver could trigger a price surge, potentially pushing prices above $200 per ounce by summer 2026.
Gold Market Analysis
The article also discusses gold prices, noting a mid-cycle pullback similar to that seen in 1979. The author suggests that gold prices could resume an upward trend in March, potentially reaching $8,000 by April or May 2026.
Silver Miners and Market Ratios
The silver miners to silver ratio is at one of its lowest levels in history, indicating that silver mining stocks may be undervalued. The author highlights that some producers operate at costs below $15 per ounce, suggesting significant upside potential for these stocks.
Market Indicators
The Gold Cycle Indicator is currently overbought, indicating a potential correction. The article notes that silver prices have recently fallen below key support levels, and a sustained drop could lead to a retest of lower breakout levels.
Bitcoin Market Update
In a brief mention, the article notes that Bitcoin has broken support at $75,000, marking a significant selloff and indicating a bear market. The author anticipates a final bottom around October 2026.
Conclusion
The article concludes that while recent margin increases and excess leverage have caused a selloff in metals, the potential for a supply crunch or default at COMEX could lead to a significant rally in silver prices. The author expects prices to consolidate in the near term before resuming an upward trend, with a final top anticipated in May 2026.
Author's Credentials: AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis, with a focus on market cycles and price predictions.