US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Eyes 100.00 Ahead of NFP

Published: Mar 06, 2026, 09:58 GMT+00:00

Key Points

• The Dollar Index (DXY) is holding its ascending channel at $99.21, with technical indicators suggesting a potential rise to $100.00.
• EUR/USD has fallen below the 0.236 Fibonacci level, with sellers rejecting recovery attempts near the $1.1644 zone.
• GBP/USD remains in a bearish channel below $1.3400, with downside momentum targeting $1.3210.

Market Overview

During the European trading session, the US Dollar found some support and managed to rise above the 99.00 level. The DXY is currently at 99.07, showing a slight gain of 0.03%, primarily driven by increased safe-haven demand due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Geopolitical Tensions Impacting the Dollar

The conflict between the US and Israel with Iran has intensified, leading to soaring oil prices and inflation concerns. Iran has launched missiles and drones across the Gulf, targeting an oil refinery in Bahrain, while Israel continues its military actions in Tehran. The US has suspended operations at its embassy in Kuwait, adding to the uncertainty and boosting the dollar's appeal as a safe haven.

Fed Rate Speculations

On the economic front, Federal Reserve officials have indicated that if inflation remains high, interest rates will need to be raised. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized the importance of trust in the Fed's independence, suggesting that more rate hikes may be forthcoming. Traders are closely monitoring US data releases, particularly Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Retail Sales, with expectations for February NFP around 59K, down from 130K in January.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

The DXY is trading around $99.21, firmly within an upward sloping channel on the 2-hour chart. The price is above the 50-day EMA at $98.87 and the 200-day EMA at $98.03, indicating bullish sentiment. Recent consolidation above the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $99.18 suggests that buyers are defending their positions. An RSI reading of 55-60 indicates steady upward movement without overextension. A sustained move above $99.50 could lead to a push towards $99.68 and potentially $100.00.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook

GBP/USD is trading around $1.3327, remaining within a bearish channel. The price is below both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reinforcing downward momentum. Immediate support is at $1.3306, with further levels at $1.3254 and $1.3210. An RSI around 45-50 suggests limited bullish activity. A drop below $1.3300 could lead to a decline to $1.3250, while a recovery above $1.34 may shift momentum positively.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is currently at $1.1579, also within a bearish channel. The price is below both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The price has fallen below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $1.16, hovering just above a recent swing low at $1.1531. An RSI of 40-45 indicates struggles for recovery. A sustained move below $1.1530 could lead to a drop to $1.1486, while a recovery above $1.16 may target $1.1679.

About the Author

Arslan Ali is a finance MBA and holds an MPhil in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan provides insights into market sentiment and the potential for instruments to be overbought or oversold.