Gold and Silver Price Forecast: Key Insights

Published: February 20, 2026

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) has recently rebounded from a low of $4,402, reclaiming the significant $5,000 level, which aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci support. Traders are currently in a holding pattern, awaiting crucial US economic data, particularly the Advance Q4 GDP and the PCE Price Index, which will provide insights into the strength of the US economy and inflation trends.

Federal Reserve's Stance

The Federal Reserve's recent minutes indicate that there is no immediate pressure to cut interest rates, which has bolstered the US dollar and placed downward pressure on gold prices. The job market remains robust, leading to speculation that the Fed may even consider raising rates if inflation does not show signs of slowing.

Geopolitical Factors

On the geopolitical front, tensions between the US and Iran are escalating. President Trump has issued a warning to Iran regarding their nuclear negotiations, while Iran has stated they do not seek war but will retaliate if attacked. Such tensions typically drive investors towards gold as a safe haven asset.

Technical Analysis of Gold

Gold is currently trading around $5,027, having bounced back to the $5,000 level. This rebound is supported by the 50-period Exponential Moving Average at approximately $4,990. The next resistance level is at $5,141, which corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. A potential trading strategy is to buy gold if it surpasses $5,145, targeting $5,300 with a stop loss below $4,990.

Silver's Performance

Silver (XAG/USD) has broken above the $80 mark, trading at around $80.69 after overcoming the $78.44 resistance level. This breakout signals a potential upward trend, with immediate resistance at $85.59 and further targets at $92.14. A suggested trading strategy is to buy silver if it exceeds $81.00, aiming for $85.50 with a stop loss below $78.40.

Conclusion

Both gold and silver are currently influenced by a mix of economic data expectations, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical tensions. Traders are advised to monitor these factors closely as they navigate their investment strategies in the precious metals market.