Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Iran Conflict at a Crossroads
Author: Matt Weller CFA, CMT, Head of Market Research
Date: March 26, 2026
Key Points
- The Nasdaq 100 is nearing 6-month lows, breaking key support at 24,000.
- President Trump's comments suggest the global economy may need to worsen to pressure Iran into a ceasefire.
- Iran has rejected the US's peace proposal and is preparing for potential military escalation.
- Traders are growing cautious as the weekend approaches, following a pattern of fading positivity.
Market Overview
The Nasdaq 100 index is currently under significant pressure, threatening to close at its lowest point in six months. This decline follows a pattern observed since the onset of the Iran conflict nearly four weeks ago, where initial optimism at the beginning of the week has consistently diminished as the weekend approaches.
Trump's Comments and Market Reaction
President Trump has issued a stern warning to Iran, stating that their negotiators "better get serious soon" and that the US is approaching a "no turning back" point, which he described as "not pretty." His remarks indicate a belief that further deterioration of the global economy may be necessary to compel Iran to agree to a ceasefire.
Iran's Response
In response to the US's proposed 15-point peace agreement, Iran has officially rejected the offer and instead presented a 5-point counterproposal, which is unlikely to be accepted by the US. Additionally, reports suggest that Iran is mobilizing over 1 million troops in anticipation of a possible US ground invasion.
Technical Analysis of Nasdaq 100
From a technical standpoint, the Nasdaq 100 is on track for its lowest close in six months, having broken through the critical support level of 24,000. This decline follows the index's breach of its 200-day moving average for the first time in ten months. The outlook remains bearish unless positive developments arise from the Iran conflict.
Future Outlook
The next significant support level for the Nasdaq 100 is identified at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2025 rally, located near 22,500. Any potential rebounds in the index will likely be met with skepticism from bearish traders until it can reclaim the 200-day moving average around 24,500.
As the situation develops, all eyes will be on the upcoming "deadline" set by Trump, which may lead to further volatility in the markets.