Market Quick Take - 26 February 2026

Market Drivers and Catalysts

• Equities: Stocks rose across regions, with U.S. tech leading the way. Europe reached record highs due to tariff relief, while Hong Kong saw gains driven by budget optimism.
• Volatility: The VIX index softened, but downside protection remains elevated ahead of U.S. data releases and following Nvidia's earnings report.
• Digital Assets: IBIT and ETHA surged, indicating improved risk appetite in the crypto market.
• Fixed Income: U.S. Treasury yields remained rangebound, while Japan's JGB saw slight weakness.
• Currencies: The JPY recovered some losses from earlier in the week, while the USD weakened.
• Commodities: Gold and silver remained in a trading range after a failed breakout in silver prices.

Macro Events

Nvidia reported strong earnings and forecasts, initially boosting its stock by over 3% in after-hours trading, although concerns about long-term growth potential relative to valuation led to a pullback.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda hinted at a potential rate hike, contingent on achieving a 2% inflation target by late fiscal 2026, with discussions on timing expected in March and April.

U.S. mortgage rates fell to 6.09%, the lowest since September 2022, with mixed results in mortgage applications.

Hong Kong's inflation rate decreased to 1.1%, with improvements in GDP growth and a projected budget surplus enhancing market sentiment.

Germany's economy showed signs of recovery with a 0.3% growth in Q4 2025, driven by increased household consumption and government spending.

Macro Calendar Highlights

• 0830 – ECB’s Lagarde to speak in Parliament
• 1000 – Eurozone February Economic, Industrial, Service Confidence
• 1330 – U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
• 1500 – U.S. Fed’s Bowman to testify to Senate Committee
• 2330 – Japan February Tokyo CPI

Earnings This Week

Key earnings reports include Deutsche Telekom, Schneider Electric, Rolls Royce Holdings, and Intuit among others.

Equities Overview

USA

U.S. stocks advanced, with the S&P 500 up 0.8%, driven by a rebound in growth stocks as AI-related concerns eased. Notable performers included Microsoft and Palantir.

Europe

European equities reached new highs, with the Euro STOXX 50 up 0.9%. Strong results from HSBC and ASML contributed to the positive sentiment.

Asia

Hong Kong stocks rebounded, supported by a favorable budget outlook and confirmed GDP growth of 3.8% in Q4.

Volatility Insights

Volatility has decreased, with the VIX closing at 17.93. However, investors are still seeking downside protection, indicating caution in the market.

Digital Assets

Digital assets are stabilizing, with Bitcoin trading around $68,176 and Ethereum near $2,063. The market shows cautious recovery, with institutional interest indicated by stronger ETF performance.

Fixed Income

U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated, with high yield debt spreads tightening amid strong risk sentiment. Japanese government bonds reacted to hawkish comments from BoJ officials.

Commodities

Gold and silver prices struggled to maintain momentum, while crude oil markets remained jittery ahead of geopolitical developments regarding Iran.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar weakened, with notable movements in USDJPY and EURUSD as market dynamics shifted.