Market Analysis Summary - Week of 30 March 2026

Summary of Recent Events

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the US-Israel tensions with Iran, has significantly impacted global markets. Brent crude oil prices surged above $110 per barrel, reflecting heightened geopolitical risks. In addition, inflationary pressures are mounting in Australia and Japan, while the Eurozone is experiencing a decline in business activity.

Market Movements

• US Indices: The S&P 500 fell 2.1%, entering correction territory, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 3.2%. The Dow Jones fared slightly better with a 0.9% decline.
• Hang Seng Index: The index closed below 25,000 for the first time since August 2025, marking its fourth consecutive week of losses.
• AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell to a two-month low at $0.6875, influenced by softer domestic inflation and global commodity demand concerns.

Key Economic Indicators

US Labor Market

Upcoming job data will be crucial in assessing the stability of the US labor market, with expectations of a potential rebound following a contraction of 92,000 jobs in February.

Eurozone Inflation

The euro area is set to release its flash inflation reading, which could indicate the early effects of the Middle East conflict on inflation rates, with a consensus estimate of 2.8%.

China's PMI Data

China's purchasing managers' index (PMI) reports will be closely watched, especially given the contrasting signals from different surveys regarding manufacturing activity.

Technical Analysis

US Tech 100

The technical outlook for the US Tech 100 has worsened, with a death cross formation suggesting potential further declines. Immediate support is noted at 22,600.

Hang Seng Index

The Hang Seng Index's close below 25,000 is significant, indicating a descending trendline. Support is at 24,204, with potential for deeper pullbacks if this level fails to hold.

AUD/USD

For AUD/USD, a sustained breach below the recent trading range could signal further downside, with resistance expected near 0.710–0.712.

Looking Ahead

The upcoming week will be pivotal for global markets, with key economic data releases that could influence monetary policy and market sentiment:

• US employment situation report on Friday.
• Euro area inflation data on Tuesday.
• China's PMI releases on Tuesday and Wednesday.