Market Analysis Summary: Fed Hike Odds Top 70% as PPI and Oil Surge
Author: Martin Lam
Date: September 11, 2026
Key Takeaways
- U.S. equities and gold prices declined, while Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar strengthened.
- August Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 5.4% year-over-year, and oil prices surged, increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week (probability exceeding 70%).
- Crude oil prices continued to rise amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
- Today's focus is on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), expected to be 3.4% year-over-year, which is the last inflation data before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
- In the UK, GDP is expected to remain flat month-over-month, influencing expectations ahead of the Bank of England's decision next week.
Global Market Review
On September 11, 2026, the market saw a rise in Treasury yields, which negatively impacted equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.6%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.58%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 0.65%. Gold prices fell by 1.9% as robust U.S. inflation data and rising oil prices heightened expectations for a rate hike. U.S. crude oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time since May due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Key Events Today
| Time (GMT+8) | Event | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | UK GDP (July) | *** |
| 14:00 | UK Industrial & Manufacturing Production (July) | ** |
| 20:30 | US CPI (August) | *** |
| 22:00 | US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary September) | *** |
| 22:00 | ECB President Lagarde Speech | *** |
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1639 / 1.1656 | Support: 1.1588 / 1.1567
The euro remains under pressure as the ECB's hawkish stance is countered by concerns over growth. A stronger CPI could push EUR/USD below its moving average.
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3552 / 1.3575 | Support: 1.3475 / 1.3451
GBP/USD is under pressure as U.S. PPI data reinforces rate hike expectations. The pair may retest last week's lows if supportive data does not emerge.
USD/JPY
Resistance: 154.83 / 155.29 | Support: 153.81 / 153.35
USD/JPY shows a mild rebound bias, but a sustained break above 155 is needed for a stronger recovery.
US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)
Resistance: 105.43 / 107.71 | Support: 100.95 / 98.06
Crude oil prices are cautiously bullish, with geopolitical tensions driving prices higher. Watch for potential profit-taking after the recent rally.
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Resistance: 4370 / 4397 | Support: 4283 / 4256
Gold faces resistance as rising oil prices and strong U.S. inflation data weigh on its value.
Dow Jones Futures
Resistance: 52395 / 52773 | Support: 51548 / 51176
The Dow is under pressure, with PPI-driven rate hike expectations impacting market sentiment.
NASDAQ 100
Resistance: 29206 / 29307 | Support: 29005 / 28878
The Nasdaq is also under pressure, with higher PPI and oil prices affecting tech stocks.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: 77839 / 78550 | Support: 75551 / 74828
Bitcoin continues to decline as rising Treasury yields bolster expectations of a Fed rate hike.
Conclusion
The market is currently navigating through significant economic indicators and geopolitical tensions, with a focus on upcoming inflation data that could influence Federal Reserve policy and market dynamics.