Bitcoin Technical Analysis Summary
Date: June 30, 2025
Author: Giuseppe Dellamotta
Current Market Overview
Bitcoin has experienced significant upward momentum, driven by positive growth and liquidity factors. The recent dovish comments from the Federal Reserve and the resolution of geopolitical tensions have contributed to this bullish trend. The easing of financial conditions and expansionary fiscal policies suggest that the path of least resistance for Bitcoin remains upward.
Short-Term Risks
In the short term, the primary risk identified is a potential hawkish shift in interest rate expectations, which could lead to a price pullback. However, the prevailing sentiment is that the Federal Reserve is likely to either maintain the current rates or implement cuts, which should support Bitcoin's upward trajectory.
Key Catalysts Ahead
Upcoming economic data releases, including the ISM PMIs, US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), and Consumer Price Index (CPI), are expected to influence market sentiment and interest rate expectations. Soft inflation and favorable labor market data are crucial for maintaining the bullish trend, as the market anticipates three rate cuts by year-end.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has reached the upper boundary of a bullish flag pattern. A breakout above this level could target approximately $135,000, based on the flag's pole projection. However, a more conservative target of $125,000 is deemed to have a higher probability of being reached. Sellers are expected to enter the market around these levels, potentially pushing prices back towards the lower boundary of the flag.
Hourly Chart Analysis
The hourly chart indicates a slight waning of bullish momentum as Bitcoin approaches the upper boundary of the flag. A key support zone is identified around the $107,000 level, where buyers are actively accumulating. A defined risk below this support level is crucial for maintaining upward pressure. Conversely, sellers will look for a breakdown below this support to increase bearish positions, targeting the lower boundary around $100,000.
Conclusion
Overall, Bitcoin's technical outlook remains positive, with key levels to watch for potential breakouts or pullbacks. The upcoming economic data will play a significant role in shaping market expectations and price action in the near term.