Gold Prices Forecast Summary

Published: July 09, 2025

Author: James Hyerczyk

Key Points

• Gold prices have declined for three consecutive days due to rising Treasury yields and a strengthening U.S. dollar.
• Traders are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes for insights on future interest rate adjustments.
• The dollar index has increased, putting additional pressure on gold prices and limiting any potential bullish momentum.

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) has been trading under significant technical levels, specifically below the $3,310.48 pivot and the 50-day moving average at $3,321.30. This indicates that bearish sentiment is prevailing in the market, exacerbated by tariff news and rising Treasury yields.

Impact of Tariff Threats

President Trump's recent announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper and potential levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals has reignited concerns over a global trade war. This has led traders to reassess inflation and global demand risks, with analysts suggesting that escalating tariffs could heighten stagflation pressures in the U.S. and compel Europe to stimulate domestic demand.

Treasury Yields and Fed Minutes

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near a three-week high at 4.407%, while the 2-year yield remains steady at 3.903%. This stability in yields reflects market adjustments to Trump's trade policies as traders await further guidance from the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts.

Dollar Index Performance

The U.S. dollar index has seen a slight increase of 0.1%, driven by safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions. The dollar's strength, particularly against the yen, has contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices.

Technical Analysis and Future Outlook

Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for gold prices, with potential targets at the June 30 low of $3,244.41 and a longer-term pivot at $3,228.38. A move above the $3,365.92 resistance level would be necessary to indicate renewed bullish interest. Until then, the combination of higher Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and tariff uncertainties is likely to keep gold's upside potential limited.

Conclusion

In summary, the current market dynamics, including rising Treasury yields, a strengthening dollar, and tariff-related uncertainties, are contributing to a bearish outlook for gold prices. Traders are advised to remain vigilant and watch for clearer signals from upcoming Federal Reserve commentary.