Apple Q2 FY2026 Earnings Preview: CEO Change, China and Tariffs

Overview

Apple is set to report its fiscal second-quarter (Q2) results on April 30, 2026, after market close. This earnings call is particularly significant due to a recent CEO transition, ongoing growth in China, and concerns regarding tariff exposure and artificial intelligence (AI) monetization.

Q1 FY2026 Performance Recap

Apple's Q1 FY2026 was marked by record-breaking performance across various metrics:

• Total revenue reached $143.8 billion.
• Earnings per share (EPS) stood at $2.84.
• Operating cash flow was $53.9 billion.
• iPhone revenue hit $85.3 billion, a 23% year-on-year increase.
• Greater China revenue surged 38% year-on-year.
• Services revenue reached a record $30 billion, up 14% year-on-year.
• Mac revenue declined by 7% year-on-year to $8.4 billion.

Q2 FY2026 Expectations

Analysts expect continued growth in Q2, although replicating Q1's performance may be challenging:

• iPhone is projected to account for approximately 52% of total revenue.
• Services are expected to maintain growth similar to Q1.
• Mac revenue is anticipated to be flat year-on-year, with potential positive contributions from the new MacBook Neo.
• Gross margin is forecasted at 48.4%.

Key Questions for the Earnings Call

Several critical questions are likely to shape the earnings call:

1. CEO Transition: With Tim Cook transitioning to executive chairman and John Ternus taking over as CEO, how will this affect Apple's strategic direction?
2. China Growth: Can Apple sustain its growth momentum in Greater China amidst increasing competition?
3. Tariffs and Costs: How will new tariffs and rising memory costs impact Apple's margins?
4. MacBook Neo Supply: Will Apple be able to meet the demand for the new MacBook Neo given supply constraints?
5. AI Monetization: What is Apple's timeline for monetizing its AI initiatives?

Analyst Sentiment and Technical Analysis

As of April 22, Apple's stock has a Smart Score rating of 9 out of 10. Analyst sentiment is generally positive, with 16 'buy' ratings among 26 analysts. The average 12-month price target is $300.9, indicating a potential upside of approximately 10% from current levels.

Technically, Apple's stock has shown resilience, recovering from a 15% correction. A positive earnings surprise could lead to a breakout above the $274 resistance level, while a disappointing result may reinforce this resistance and direct prices towards support levels around $260.