Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: 9 Weeks of Ceasefire

Published: June 03, 2026

Author: Arslan Ali

Key Points

• The US-Iran ceasefire has been in effect for over nine weeks, allowing for a gradual resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
• WTI crude oil prices rebounded to $94.68, maintaining higher lows and defending the blue ascending channel floor.
• Brent crude oil held steady at $96.93, testing the moving average while showing a neutral-to-bullish structure.
• Natural gas futures traded at $3.161, retesting support within the blue ascending channel with positive momentum.

Market Overview

As of June 3, 2026, oil markets remained stable following the US-Iran ceasefire, which has reduced geopolitical risks. This stability has allowed crude oil prices to revert to traditional supply and demand dynamics. Both WTI and Brent crude are moving towards a balanced state, with US production nearing its peak and OPEC+ maintaining steady production levels. Additionally, non-OPEC supplies from countries like Brazil, Guyana, and Canada are increasing.

Despite ongoing restoration of Iranian production, demand has shown slight recovery, particularly in Asia. However, global demand growth for 2026 is expected to be modest due to high interest rates and cautious spending in Western economies.

Natural Gas Market

Natural gas prices have remained stable, supported by growing storage levels in the US and Europe, attributed to a warmer-than-expected spring and reduced risks for liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping routes. While spot gas prices are less concerning in the West, LNG demand from Japan, South Korea, and India continues to be robust.

Future Expectations

Investors are looking forward to upcoming US supply reports and guidance from OPEC+. The current ceasefire in the Middle East is expected to eliminate several risk premiums; however, oil markets remain sensitive to any sudden changes in political stability in the region.

Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Futures

Natural gas futures are currently trading at $3.161, with a recent test of the moving average near $3.20 within a blue ascending channel. The market shows bullish higher lows, with the RSI indicating neutral momentum. A volume profile suggests $3.10 as a pivot level, with resistance levels identified at $3.195 and $3.256.

Trade Idea: Buy at $3.161 targeting $3.256, stop loss at $3.10.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil is holding at $94.68, with bullish continuation candles defending the blue ascending channel floor. The RSI has risen past 48, indicating reasserted momentum. Resistance levels are projected between $96.00 and $98.21.

Trade Idea: Buy at $94.68 targeting $96.00, stop loss at $93.00.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent crude oil is trading at $96.93, having tested the moving average near $98.21. The market shows a neutral structure while defending the blue descending channel support. Key supply is indicated at $97.62, with support levels between $94.90 and $92.54.

Trade Idea: Buy at $96.93 targeting $98.21, stop loss at $95.50.

Conclusion

The oil and natural gas markets are currently navigating a period of relative stability due to geopolitical factors, with potential for growth as demand rebounds. Traders are advised to monitor technical indicators and geopolitical developments closely.