Market Analysis Summary - Venezuela Tensions Lift Gold and Oil

Date: January 6, 2026

Market Highlights

In December, U.S. manufacturing experienced its tenth consecutive month of contraction, primarily due to tariffs that have increased costs and dampened demand. Despite this, U.S. equities saw a rise, with a notable rally in financial stocks propelling the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a new record high. The energy sector also benefited from geopolitical developments, particularly following a U.S. military operation aimed at capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

The U.S. Dollar Index initially rose to its highest level since December 10 but ultimately closed down 0.3% at 98.262. In contrast, gold prices surged to a one-week high, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid the tensions in Venezuela, with spot gold settling at USD 4,448.19 per ounce, marking a 2.7% increase. Oil prices also saw a rise of approximately USD 1 as traders evaluated the potential implications of Maduro's capture on crude oil flows from Venezuela, which holds the largest proven oil reserves globally.

Key Outlook

Market participants are expected to focus on the final December readings of Services and Composite PMIs from major economies. The U.S. Services PMI is particularly significant, with a forecast of holding at 52.9, indicating continued expansion in the services sector, which would support the U.S. economy. In the euro area, Germany's preliminary December CPI is anticipated to rebound to 0.2% from a previous -0.2%, which would be supportive of the euro.

Key Data and Events

• 16:55 EU GERMANY Services & Composite PMI Final DEC
• 17:00 EU Services & Composite PMI Final DEC
• 17:30 GB Services & Composite PMI Final DEC
• 21:00 EU GERMANY CPI YoY Prel DEC
• 22:45 US Services & Composite PMI Final DEC

Market Analysis

EUR/USD

Resistance: 1.1763/1.1786 | Support: 1.1689/1.1666

The EUR/USD pair stabilized around the 1.17 level after a recent pullback, indicating limited follow-through from the dollar's rebound. The market is in a consolidation phase as it awaits key U.S. labor data.

GBP/USD

Resistance: 1.3565/1.3585 | Support: 1.3499/1.3484

The GBP/USD has eased from recent highs, with modest safe-haven demand supporting the dollar. The price action suggests consolidation rather than reversal.

USD/JPY

Resistance: 157.18/157.44 | Support: 156.08/155.82

The USD/JPY pair pulled back as dollar momentum faded, with policy divergence driving yen demand.

US Crude Oil Futures (FEB)

Resistance: 58.86/59.16 | Support: 57.58/57.28

WTI crude oil prices spiked as traders reassessed supply risks related to Venezuela, but upside momentum has faded.

Spot Gold

Resistance: 4477/4509 | Support: 4412/4379

Gold prices reached a one-week high due to geopolitical tensions, but upside stalled near key resistance levels.

Dow Futures

Resistance: 49472/49780 | Support: 48744/48431

Dow Futures reached record highs, driven by strength in energy and financial stocks, as investors remain optimistic about U.S. actions in Venezuela.

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 25834/26179 | Support: 25016/24741

The NASDAQ 100 continues to rebound but shows divergence from the Dow, indicating cautious investor sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Resistance: 95,844/97,077 | Support: 91,938/90,276

Bitcoin rebounded above $93,000, supported by improving risk appetite, but faces selling pressure near resistance levels.

Overall, the market is navigating through geopolitical tensions and economic data releases, with a focus on safe-haven assets and potential impacts on commodity prices.