Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Strait of Hormuz Standoff Intensifies – Is $105 the Next Target?

Published: April 24, 2026

Key Points

• Hormuz Escalation: Iranian forces have reportedly fired on commercial ships, significantly increasing the global oil risk premium.
• WTI Breakout: Crude oil has broken its descending channel, with the 200-day EMA near $92.00 now acting as a solid support level.
• Storage Glut: Natural gas inventories rose by 103 Bcf, surpassing the $2.60 demand zone due to mild shoulder-season weather.
• Diplomatic Deadlock: Despite a ceasefire extension by Trump, Iran's refusal to negotiate without lifting the blockade keeps markets on edge.

Market Overview

The price of WTI crude oil has surged to approximately $95 to $97 per barrel, driven by escalating US-Iran tensions and a near-complete blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has severely impacted oil supply. In March, global crude supply saw a significant decline, compounded by OPEC+ production cuts and increasing infrastructure risks in the Middle East, leading to a perfect storm for oil prices, now at multi-month highs.

Conversely, Henry Hub natural gas futures have plummeted to around $2.57 per million BTUs, the lowest in a considerable time, due to substantial storage builds. The EIA reported a 103 BCF injection, significantly above the five-year average, and this is occurring amid mild spring weather and weak heating demand. Although production has decreased, the US has been exporting considerable amounts of gas as LNG, resulting in an oversupply that is driving prices down.

Natural Gas Analysis

Natural gas is currently trading around $2.56, breaking below a critical support zone between $2.60 and $2.63, continuing its overall downtrend within a descending triangle structure. The price remains below both the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, indicating a persistent bearish trend. Recent trading candles show significant selling pressure, with the RSI dropping below 40, confirming downward momentum.

Immediate Support Levels: $2.53 and $2.45. A recovery above $2.63 could stabilize the market.

Trade Idea: Sell below $2.60, target $2.53, stop loss above $2.63.

WTI Crude Oil Analysis

WTI crude oil is trading near $97.61 after bouncing from a previous support level of $85.30 and is attempting to break out of a descending channel. The price is holding above the 50 EMA, with the 200 EMA near $92.00 now acting as support, indicating a shift in market structure. Recent bullish candles suggest strong buying pressure, with the RSI trending upwards towards 65, indicating growing upward momentum.

Resistance Levels: $100.60 and $105.75. Key support level at $95.30.

Trade Idea: Buy above $98.00, target $100.60, stop loss below $95.30.

Brent Crude Oil Analysis

Brent crude is currently trading near $100.88, approaching a significant descending trendline at $101.30. It has broken above $99.50 and is consolidating above the 50 EMA, with the 200 EMA near $96.00 providing support. The bullish candles indicate a rally, although there is some hesitation at the trendline resistance.

RSI Status: Above 60, indicating good momentum. A confirmed break above $101.30 could lead to targets of $107.20 or even $111.50, while failure to break could result in a pullback to $99.50.

Trade Idea: Buy a breakout above $101.30, target $107.20, stop loss below $99.50.

Conclusion

The current geopolitical tensions and market dynamics are creating significant volatility in oil and natural gas prices. Traders should remain vigilant and consider the outlined trade ideas while monitoring key support and resistance levels.