Jet Fuel Market Faces Extreme Supply Tensions

Author: Łukasz Zembik

Date: 13 March 2026

Overview

The jet fuel market is currently experiencing significant supply tensions, with prices surging nearly 90% to exceed $1,500 per ton, marking the highest level since the onset of the Ukraine war. This dramatic increase in jet fuel prices is indicative of a shortage in refined products rather than crude oil itself.

Price Movements and Indicators

The jet fuel crack spread has climbed to nearly $100 per barrel, a clear sign of tight supply conditions. This spread is significantly higher than that of diesel, suggesting that refineries are facing increased margins for jet fuel production due to the scarcity of finished products.

The Role of the Middle East

The Middle East is crucial in the global fuel export market, accounting for approximately 22-23% of global petroleum product exports. The region's refining capacity, while only 11% of the global total, plays a vital role in international trade, especially as developed economies see a decline in their refining capabilities.

Key shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, are essential for transporting petroleum products, including jet fuel. Any disruptions in this area can lead to immediate supply shortages and price spikes in global markets.

Impact on Europe

Europe is particularly vulnerable to these supply tensions, with around 25-28% of its jet fuel consumption met through imports, over 40% of which come from the Middle East. This dependency means that any disruption in Middle Eastern exports can lead to rapid increases in jet fuel prices across European markets.

Market Sensitivity

Despite a slight reduction in air traffic potentially lowering demand for aviation fuel, the decrease is insufficient to offset the risks posed by supply shortages. Consequently, the jet fuel market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and disruptions in trade routes, making it one of the most reactive segments of the global energy market.