Market Analysis Summary - Oil and Natural Gas Forecasts

Author: Vladimir Zernov

Published: October 5, 2026

Overview

The article discusses the current state of the oil and natural gas markets, highlighting recent price movements and forecasts. It emphasizes the impact of geopolitical events, particularly involving Saudi Arabia and Iran, on oil prices and market dynamics.

Natural Gas Market

Natural gas prices are currently testing resistance levels between $3.00 and $3.05. A successful settlement above $3.05 could lead to further gains towards $3.20 - $3.25. Conversely, if prices fall below $3.00, it may trigger a decline towards the 50-day moving average at $2.91, with further support at $2.75 - $2.80.

WTI Oil Market

WTI oil prices are experiencing a pullback as Saudi Aramco has reduced prices for Asian buyers by up to $5 per barrel. This price cut indicates an increase in oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. If WTI settles below the support level of $88.50 - $89.00, it may further decline towards $84.50 - $85.00.

Brent Oil Market

Brent oil is also facing downward pressure, with traders betting on the continued flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. If Brent settles below the critical $100.00 level, it could drop to $97.00 - $97.50, and further below that to the 50-day moving average at $94.84. A recovery would require a settlement above $102.00, targeting resistance at $109.00 - $109.50.

Geopolitical Context

The article notes that Saudi Arabia has restored oil flow through the East-West pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran has not exported oil recently due to a naval blockade, raising the stakes for potential negotiations or escalations in the region.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates a cautious outlook for both natural gas and oil markets, with significant resistance and support levels to watch. The geopolitical landscape, particularly involving Saudi Arabia and Iran, continues to play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics.