Market Quick Take - 23 February 2026
Market Drivers and Catalysts
- Equities: Stocks in the US and Europe rose due to tariff headlines, while Hong Kong's market fell as technology stocks cooled amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.
- Volatility: US futures showed softness, with VIX futures increasing due to tariff uncertainties.
- Digital Assets: Experienced macro-driven weakness, with notable whale distribution and leveraged liquidations.
- Fixed Income: US Treasuries were volatile following a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, with yields retreating in early trading.
- Currencies: The US dollar weakened while the Japanese yen strengthened after new tariffs were announced by Trump.
- Commodities: Gold and silver prices rallied significantly following the Supreme Court ruling.
Macro Events
President Trump announced plans to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15% after the Supreme Court overruled his previous tariffs. Concerns about potential military action against Iran have also emerged, with negotiations set to resume in Geneva.
The US economy grew by 1.4% in Q4 2025, significantly below the 3% forecast, attributed to a slowdown in consumer and government spending. The annual PCE inflation rate reached 2.9%, with core inflation at 3%, both exceeding expectations.
Fed officials expressed a cautious approach to future rate cuts, emphasizing the need for patience despite inflation progress.
Macro Calendar Highlights
- 0900 – Germany Feb. IFO Survey
- 1300 – US Fed’s Waller to speak on the economic outlook
- 1330 – US Jan. Chicago Fed National Activity Index
- 1500 – US Dec. Factory Orders
- 1530 – US Feb. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity
Earnings This Week
Key earnings reports include:
- Today: Dominion Energy, ONEOK, Diamondback Energy
- Tuesday: Home Depot, Mercado Libre, EOG Resources
- Wednesday: Nvidia, HSBC Holdings, Lowes Companies
- Thursday: Deutsche Telekom, Salesforce, Rolls Royce Holdings
- Friday: BASF, Holcim, Swiss Re
Equities Overview
US stocks rose on Friday, with the S&P 500 up 0.7% and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.9%, following the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs. European stocks also reached record highs, driven by positive economic data and easing trade pressures. In contrast, Hong Kong's market fell due to cooling tech stocks and geopolitical concerns.
Volatility Insights
Markets began the week cautiously, with US equity futures lower and VIX futures higher, indicating increased short-term protection. The VIX index reflects elevated uncertainty but not panic, as policy-related uncertainties around US trade measures persist.
Digital Assets
Digital assets traded lower, with Bitcoin and Ethereum reflecting broader risk sentiment rather than specific crypto catalysts. ETF flows showed continued net inflows into Bitcoin, while Ethereum's flows were mixed.
Fixed Income
The US Treasury market experienced volatility due to the Supreme Court ruling, with yields slightly higher across the curve. Treasuries firmed slightly following the announcement of new tariffs.
Commodities Update
Gold and silver prices surged following the Supreme Court ruling, with gold reaching significant highs. Crude oil futures fell after a rise linked to geopolitical tensions regarding Iran.
Currencies Overview
The US dollar weakened against most currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, which strengthened following the announcement of new tariffs. The GBP/USD rebounded from a recent sell-off, while EUR/GBP remained stable.