Crude Oil Price Forecast: Testing Support Before Possible Bounce

Author: Bruce Powers

Published: February 17, 2026

Overview

The article discusses the current state of WTI crude oil prices, highlighting a short-term weakness while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook. The analysis focuses on technical indicators, recent price actions, and potential future movements in the crude oil market.

Current Market Conditions

WTI crude oil is currently facing challenges as it tests support levels near the 20-day and 200-day moving averages. Despite a general upward trend, there are indications of short-term risks that could lead to further price declines. The price has been consolidating within a narrow range, but recent movements suggest a potential failure of support at critical moving averages.

Recent Price Action

On a recent trading day, crude oil prices fell below both the 20-day and 200-day moving averages, reaching a 10-day low of $61.89. A close below the previous trend high of $62.39 would indicate a failure of support, potentially leading to a deeper pullback in prices.

Technical Analysis

The article outlines key technical levels to watch, including:

• 20-day moving average at $63.20
• 200-day moving average at $62.82
• 50-day moving average at $60.19
• 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $59.23
• Initial downside target from the ABCD pattern at $60.39

Failure to hold above these levels could signal a more significant downturn, while a bounce off the 50-day average could set the stage for a continuation of the bullish trend.

Trend Reversal Potential

Despite the short-term risks, there are signs of a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish. A breakout above the downtrend line and reclaiming the 200-day average in January indicated strength in the market. If crude oil can stabilize and bounce off the 50-day average, it may lead to a renewed upward movement.

Conclusion

The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring key support levels and technical indicators in the crude oil market. While short-term weakness is evident, the long-term outlook remains positive, contingent on the ability of prices to hold above critical moving averages and the potential for a trend reversal.