Market Insight Summary - December 21, 2025
In this week's report from Bank of America, we observe a mix of enthusiasm and caution in the market. Key insights include:
Equity Sentiment and Cautionary Signals
Michael Hartnett's Bull & Bear indicator has reached an extreme bullish level of 8.5, up from 7.9, signaling a contrarian sell for risk assets. Historically, readings above 8.0 have preceded market pullbacks, with global equities declining a median of 2.7% over the following two months. The Fund Manager Survey indicates the highest bullish sentiment in 3.5 years, driven by expectations of rate, tariff, and tax cuts.
Global EPS Growth and Economic Concerns
Despite a projected 9% global EPS growth in 2026, Hartnett warns of limited upside due to rising U.S. unemployment and potential slowdowns in AI capital expenditures. A possible stimulus surprise from China remains an upside risk.
Tech Sector and Market Volatility
Ben Bowler highlights that the current tech boom, particularly in AI, mirrors past transformative tech cycles, suggesting a potential peak around April 2028. However, early warning signs of a bubble are evident, including significant first-week gains in U.S. tech IPOs and increased market volatility.
Consumer Spending and Retail Outlook
Upcoming tax code changes and potential "tariff dividend checks" could boost consumer spending, particularly among lower- and middle-income households. Tax refunds are expected to rise by $65 billion, with additional impacts from proposed tariff dividends.
Beauty Market Growth
Ashley Wallace forecasts a 4.5% growth in the global beauty market for 2026, driven by strong trends in China and the U.S. Premium skincare and haircare products are expected to perform well, while mass beauty may struggle due to economic disparities among consumers.
Conclusion
As we approach the end of the year, the insights suggest a cautious yet optimistic outlook for various sectors, particularly in retail and beauty, while remaining vigilant about potential market corrections.
Must Read Research will return in January. Have a happy holiday!