Market Quick Take - 5 March 2026

Market Drivers and Catalysts

• Equities: A rebound in U.S. tech stocks and recovery in Europe improved market sentiment, while Asia remained fragile following a significant decline in Korea.
• Volatility: Ongoing tensions from the Iran conflict and oil-driven inflation risks have kept volatility elevated, although it has eased somewhat.
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin is stable near $72,000, Ethereum around $2,100, with a surge in crypto equities driven by policy optimism.
• Fixed Income: U.S. Treasury yields are rebounding, with the 10-year yield reaching a new three-week high.
• Currencies: The U.S. dollar and Japanese yen are firm against other major currencies.
• Commodities: Crude oil prices are steady, while gold and silver remain stable.

Macro Events

A U.S. submarine reportedly sank an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka, marking a significant escalation in tensions. The U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran is ongoing, raising concerns about a prolonged conflict. The Strait of Hormuz is currently blocked due to threats from Iran's IRGC, prompting President Trump to offer insurance and escorts for Gulf vessels.

In economic data, the U.S. ISM Services PMI rose to 56.1 in February, surpassing expectations, with new orders and employment improving. Private businesses added 63,000 jobs, primarily in education and health services.

In Europe, producer prices increased by 0.7% in January, driven by energy prices, while annual prices fell by 2.1%.

Macro Calendar Highlights

• 0700 – Sweden Feb. CPI
• 0745 – France Jan. Industrial Production
• 1000 – Eurozone Jan. Retail Sales
• 1230 – US Feb. Challenger Job Cuts
• 1330 – US Jan. Import Price Index
• 1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

Earnings This Week

Today: Costco, Petrobras, Marvell Technology, Merck, Deutsche Post, Reckitt Benckiser, Ciena, Galderma, Kroger, Universal Music Group, JD.com, Aviva

Friday: OTP Bank

Equities Overview

USA

The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 6,869.50, with tech stocks leading the gains. Notable performers included AMD (+5.8%) and Amazon (+3.9%). Moderna surged 16.0% following a patent settlement.

Europe

The Euro Stoxx 50 increased by 1.7%, with banks and tech stocks driving the rebound. However, Adidas fell 7.0% due to cautious profit guidance.

Asia

The Kospi rebounded 9.6%, led by Samsung Electronics (+11.3%), while the Shanghai Composite rose 0.5% as markets looked for signs of policy support.

Volatility Insights

Market volatility has slightly decreased, with the CBOE VIX closing at 21.15. The S&P 500's expected move for the week is approximately ±77.9 points.

Digital Assets

Digital assets are showing a firmer tone, with Bitcoin around $72,600 and Ethereum at $2,130. Institutional flows are supporting the market, with significant gains in crypto-related equities.

Fixed Income

U.S. Treasuries have seen a sell-off, with the 10-year yield trading at three-week highs. High yield corporate bonds are also experiencing tightening spreads, indicating improved risk sentiment.

Commodities

Crude oil prices have rebounded, with Brent trading above $84 per barrel. Gold and silver prices are stabilizing after recent volatility.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar has slightly rebounded, while the Japanese yen has firmed. The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1600, reflecting the recovery in global risk sentiment.