Gold and Silver Price Forecast: Key Insights
Author: Arslan Ali
Published: February 10, 2026
Market Overview
Gold prices are currently stable, trading between $5,020 and $5,038, maintaining a position above the critical $5,000 mark. Despite a more optimistic market sentiment that has tempered the rally, gold remains in a long-term uptrend.
The "Warsh" Pivot & Federal Reserve Independence
The nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, effective May 2026, has shifted market expectations towards a tighter monetary policy. Warsh is perceived as more hawkish, focusing on inflation control and a robust US Dollar, which challenges the previous narrative of continuous rate cuts that had previously supported gold prices reaching $5,600.
Concerns regarding the Fed's independence have somewhat eased with this nomination, stabilizing the US Dollar. However, any indications of political influence during Senate hearings could prompt investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold.
Central Bank & Speculative Liquidity
The People's Bank of China has consistently purchased gold for 15 months, although recent purchases have decreased as prices peaked. This shift away from the US Dollar is a significant long-term factor for gold's stability.
With the upcoming Lunar New Year (February 16-23), a reduction in buying and selling activity from Asia is anticipated, potentially leading to increased market volatility.
Geopolitical De-escalation vs. "Sanaenomics"
Recent diplomatic talks between the US and Iran have eased tensions in the Middle East, prompting a shift of investments from safe assets back into stocks. Additionally, Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent electoral victory has introduced "Sanaenomics," characterized by increased government spending and military budgets, which may reduce short-term demand for gold. However, concerns about Japan's debt could support gold in the long run.
Upcoming Macro Triggers
Market participants are closely monitoring three key US data releases this week:
- Nonfarm Payrolls (Wednesday): A figure below 50,000 could reignite hopes for a March rate cut, benefiting gold prices.
- CPI Inflation (Friday): Inflation driven by tariffs could influence the Fed's rate decisions, impacting gold negatively if rates remain high.
- Retail Sales: Strong consumer spending would support economic growth, favoring the US Dollar over gold.
Gold Price Outlook
Gold is currently trading near $5,035, consolidating after a bounce from a low of $4,680. The price remains above a rising trendline, indicating a continued recovery. Key Fibonacci levels are being tested, with support at $4,855 and resistance at $5,138. A break above $5,138 could lead to a target of $5,318, while a pullback may occur towards $4,995.
Trade Idea: Consider buying if gold dips near $5,000, with a stop-loss below $4,950 and a target of $5,130.
Silver Price Forecast
Silver is trading around $81.90, testing a downward trendline from a previous high of $118. The market remains in a corrective phase after a significant drop to $64. The price is above support at $83.90 but below key moving averages, indicating a cautious outlook.
Trade Idea: Consider selling around $83.50, with a stop-loss above $85.80 and a target of $75.20.
Conclusion
The gold and silver markets are currently influenced by a mix of geopolitical developments, central bank policies, and upcoming economic data. Traders should remain vigilant and consider the outlined trade ideas based on market movements and macroeconomic indicators.