Natural Gas Price Forecast: Channel Support Signals Bullish Reversal Risk
Author: Bruce Powers
Published: February 06, 2026
Market Overview
Natural gas prices are currently facing resistance below the 200-day moving average, which is a critical technical indicator. Recent trading has shown a higher daily low of $3.41 and a higher high of $3.66, but sellers have regained control after hitting resistance just above the 200-day average, currently at $3.60. The market is exhibiting a hanging man candle pattern, indicating potential bearish sentiment.
Technical Analysis
Resistance and Support Levels
The failure to break above the 200-day average suggests a bearish outlook if the price drops below Friday's low. However, there is significant long-term support indicated by a rising trendline and the recent low of $3.16. This trendline has been confirmed as dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish structure of the market.
Potential Bullish Reversal
The dominant pattern in the natural gas market suggests that if support holds near the bottom of the channel, a bullish reversal could occur. A break above this week’s high of $3.74 would confirm this reversal, indicating a potential rally.
Upside Targets
Should a bullish reversal be confirmed, several upside targets are identified:
- 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $4.79
- Previous swing high at $4.90 from March
- Key target zone near $5.32, which includes the neckline of a double top from 2022 and a 50% retracement level at $5.30
- Interim swing high at $5.50
Minimum Recovery Expectations
Unless there is a significant bearish decline below the recent higher swing low at $3.01, the expectation is for natural gas prices to strengthen towards the middle of the channel, marking the minimum anticipated advance following a confirmed bullish reversal.
Conclusion
The natural gas market is at a critical juncture, with strong support levels suggesting a potential bullish reversal. Traders should monitor key resistance levels and be prepared for possible upward movements if the market breaks above established highs.