Gold Market Analysis - February 12, 2026
By Kelvin Wong
Key Takeaways
- Gold has shown a 15.7% rebound from a low of $4,405 but is facing bullish exhaustion below the $5,170 resistance level.
- The correlation between gold prices and the US dollar has weakened, indicating a potential decline in physical demand.
- Technical indicators suggest a risk of a pullback towards the $4,795–$4,703 range unless gold prices break above $5,170.
Market Context
Gold (XAU/USD) experienced a significant rebound, reaching an intraday high of $5,092 on February 4, 2026, after bouncing from the $4,405 support level. However, the price action has since stalled, trading sideways above the 20-day moving average, which is currently acting as support at $4,940.
The usual inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar has diminished, as the US Dollar Index has declined by 1.3% since February 4, 2026. This decline has not resulted in the expected positive movement for gold prices, which is unusual given their historical correlation.
Additionally, the Shanghai gold premium has shifted from a strong premium to a discount of approximately -$14, down from +$72.28 on February 4, indicating a decrease in physical demand for gold.
Technical Analysis
In the short term (1 to 3 days), gold is showing signs of bullish exhaustion below the critical resistance level of $5,170. A break below the 20-day moving average at $4,940 could lead to a decline towards the $4,795–$4,703 range, or even retest the $4,500/$4,405 zone.
Conversely, if gold manages to break above $5,170, it could invalidate the current bearish sentiment and potentially push towards the next resistance level at $5,448, with a possibility of retesting the all-time high of $5,602 reached on January 29, 2026.
Key technical indicators, such as the hourly RSI, have shown bearish divergence, suggesting a potential downturn unless the price action changes significantly.