EURUSD Market Analysis Summary
Overview
The EURUSD exchange rate experienced a significant surge, surpassing the 1.17 mark last week, indicating potential for further gains in the upcoming week. The bullish trend is supported by a strong weekly close, with support levels anticipated around 1.15.
Upcoming Economic Data
Key economic indicators are set to be released this week, including:
- HCOB Manufacturing PMI for Germany: Scheduled for Tuesday at 3:50 PM HKT, with expectations of a weaker addition of 15,000 jobs compared to the previous month's 34,000.
- German Unemployment Figures: To be released simultaneously with the PMI data.
- Consumer Prices for the Eurozone: Expected to show similar readings to the previous month, with data released at 5 PM on the same day.
Market Sentiment
The euro's strength is attributed to traders' expectations of falling interest rates in the United States. President Trump has indicated a preference for appointing a Federal Reserve head who supports rate cuts, stating, "I’m going to put somebody that wants to cut rates." This sentiment is contributing to the euro's upward momentum.
Trade Tariff Developments
Market participants are also focused on the upcoming July 9 trade tariff pause deadline. Trump has hinted at not extending the pause, which could introduce volatility in the markets as the deadline approaches.
Conclusion
With the combination of strong economic data, potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy, and trade tariff developments, the EURUSD pair is positioned for potential further gains in the near term. Traders should remain vigilant as these factors unfold.