Market Analysis Summary: Natural Gas and Oil Forecast

Published: April 13, 2026

Key Highlights

• Blockade Shock: WTI crude oil prices surged by 8-9% to around $105 following the collapse of US-Iran negotiations, raising fears of a naval blockade at the Strait of Hormuz.
• WTI Bullish Reversal: A strong bullish engulfing candle off the $96 support level indicates that buyers are regaining control of the market trend.
• Natural Gas Stability: Natural gas prices remain stable at $2.65-$2.70 due to record US production levels, which are insulating it from Middle Eastern volatility.

Oil Market Overview

WTI crude oil experienced a significant price increase, reaching $104-$105 after US-Iran talks failed, leading to concerns about a potential blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil transport. Despite alternative routes provided by Saudi Arabia, supply risks remain elevated.

Brent crude oil also saw a rise, approaching $102-$103, indicating a resurgence of geopolitical risk premiums that had previously diminished. Analysts suggest that if current trends continue, oil prices could escalate to between $110 and $120, although market volatility makes predictions challenging.

Natural Gas Market Dynamics

In contrast to the oil market, natural gas prices have remained relatively unchanged, hovering around multi-month lows due to mild weather and robust domestic production exceeding 109 Bcf/day. This production level, coupled with full storage capacities, has kept prices from rising despite the turmoil in the oil market.

The natural gas market is primarily influenced by domestic supply and demand rather than international events. Unless there is a significant change in weather patterns or a surge in LNG exports, the outlook for natural gas prices remains subdued.

Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil

WTI is currently trading around $104, having rebounded from the $95-$96 range. The presence of a bullish engulfing candle suggests renewed buying interest. The 50-day EMA is positioned at approximately $101, providing a solid support level, while the 200-day EMA at $95 acts as a strong floor.

Short-term trading strategies suggest buying above $105 with a target of $111, while setting a stop loss below $100.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent crude is trading near the $102-$103 mark, having broken through a descending trendline. The 50-day EMA is around $101, and the 200-day EMA remains firm at $96. A break above $104 could lead to further gains towards $108.

Traders are advised to consider buying above $104 with a target of $108, and a stop loss set below $99.

Conclusion

The current market conditions indicate a bullish sentiment in the oil sector due to geopolitical tensions, while the natural gas market remains stable but under pressure. Traders should remain vigilant and consider technical indicators when making trading decisions.