Market Update: Metals Reject Daily Bounce After New Iran Threats

Overview

This week has already proven to be tumultuous in the markets, particularly in commodities. Following significant fluctuations in the oil market, precious metals have also experienced volatility, influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran.

Current Market Conditions

As of mid-session, crude oil prices have rebounded to $76.50 after a steep decline of 35%. Despite initial profit-taking and attempts to buy the dip, the market's volatility has persisted. Precious metals, initially buoyed by easing inflation expectations, faced challenges as the conflict dynamics shifted.

Gold prices have risen above $5,200, while silver has approached the $90 mark, and platinum has seen a notable increase of over 3%—the first such rise since early February. However, the market's erratic behavior continues to pose risks.

Geopolitical Influences

Recent intelligence reports indicate that Iran is planning to deploy water mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could severely disrupt maritime traffic. This news has led to a resurgence in oil prices, pushing them back towards $84, which has further impacted the metals market.

Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold has shown resilience but is currently forming a triangle pattern. Key levels to watch include:

• Support Levels:
  • $5,180 (4H 50-Period MA)
  • $5,050 to $5,100 (Major support)
  • $4,850 to $4,900 (Mid-Feb lows)
  • $4,400 to $4,500 (Pivotal support)
• Resistance Levels:
  • $5,238 (Session highs)
  • $5,400 (Wartime resistance)
  • $5,500 to $5,600 (All-time highs resistance)

Silver (XAG/USD)

Silver has also seen upward movement but is under pressure as oil prices rebound. Key levels for silver include:

• Support Levels:
  • $86 (Mini-support)
  • $82 to $84 (2025 Record Pivot)
  • $76 to $77.50 (February momentum support)
  • $70 to $72 (Major 2026 support)
• Resistance Levels:
  • $90 to $92 (Key range resistance)
  • $96.47 (March highs)
  • $100 to $104 (Key psychological resistance)