Tilray Brands (TLRY) Price Forecast: Cannabis Rescheduling Fuels Recovery
Published: Apr 22, 2026, 20:59 GMT+00:00
Key Points
- Cannabis rescheduling may unlock industry growth.
- TLRY breaks out with strong volume surge.
- 50-day moving average reclaimed – confirming strength.
- Resistance zone near $8.31 remains critical.
- Upside initial target seen toward $15.70 zone.
Macro Catalyst Awakens Sector Potential
Cannabis-related stocks and ETFs have struggled in recent years, particularly after a speculative frenzy in 2021 led to significant selloffs. However, recent reports indicate that the White House is moving towards rescheduling cannabis from a Schedule I drug to a Schedule III drug. This change is expected to legitimize the industry and alleviate federal restrictions that hinder cannabis businesses from accessing banking services and trademark protections. Such a shift could potentially reverse the long-term downtrend for companies like Tilray Brands (TLRY).
IPO Euphoria to Historic Decline
Tilray Brands, Inc. is a global company focused on cannabis, beverage alcohol, and wellness products. After its IPO in July 2018, the stock initially soared to a peak of around $3,000 but has since experienced a dramatic decline, reaching a low of $3.51 in June 2025—down 99.9% from its peak. New federal legislation could serve as a catalyst for recovery.
Momentum Builds at Key Resistance Zone
Recently, TLRY stock reached a 10-week high of $8.16 with significant trading volume, marking the highest volume since mid-December. The stock reclaimed its 50-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend. Resistance is identified at a confluence of a downtrend line, the 100-day moving average (currently at $8.06), and a lower swing high of $8.31 from February.
Reversal Pattern Emerges from Deep Pullback
The recent price advance follows a significant pullback after a 564% rally from the June low. Support was found near the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A breakout from a falling wedge pattern has triggered a potential bottom reversal.
Upside Trigger and Measured Target
If TLRY continues to show strength, it may reach the top of the wedge and the lower swing high at $15.70. A bullish signal would be confirmed if the stock surpasses $8.31, potentially leading to a recovery of the trendline and the 100-day moving average, validating a broader resurgence in the cannabis sector amid rescheduling momentum.
About the Author
Bruce Powers is a seasoned finance MBA and CMT® charter holder with over 20 years of experience in financial markets. He has served as head of trading strategy at hedge funds and as a corporate advisor for trading firms, providing actionable insights through technical and fundamental analyses.