Nasdaq 100 Elliott Wave Update: New ATHs Are on Tap

Author: Dr. Arnout Ter Schure

Published: January 07, 2026

Overview

The article discusses the ongoing bullish trend in the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX), predicting that this trend will continue into April 2026. The analysis is based on the Elliott Wave (EW) Principle combined with Armstrong Pi-cycle turn dates, suggesting that if the November 21 low at 23854 holds, the bull market will likely persist until a bear market similar to that of 2022 begins.

Current Market Analysis

As of the latest update, the index has shown resilience, holding above critical support levels. The author notes that the index has recently bottomed at 24647, rallied to 25716, and is currently trading in the 25700s. This movement indicates that the index is likely in the third wave of a larger bullish pattern.

Wave Structure and Targets

The article outlines the internal targets for the current impulse move, contingent on the index remaining above specified warning levels. The expected targets for the upcoming waves are:

• Orange W-3: ~26825
• Orange W-4: ~26155
• Green W-5: approximately 27225

There is also a possibility that the green W-5 could develop into an overlapping ending diagonal, which would extend the rally to the lower end of the target zone (~27860).

Warning Levels

The article specifies several warning levels for the bullish trend, which include:

• 25639
• 25428
• 25086
• 24647
• 23854

Each successive break below these levels increases the likelihood that the uptrend has ended.

Future Outlook

Despite the current bullish outlook, the author cautions that once the green W-5 completes, a bear market similar to that of 2022 is expected before a larger multi-year rally to new all-time highs (ATHs) can commence.

Conclusion

The analysis provided by Dr. Arnout Ter Schure offers a detailed perspective on the Nasdaq 100's potential movements based on Elliott Wave theory, emphasizing the importance of key support levels and the implications of future market trends.