Market Analysis Summary: Natural Gas and Oil Forecast

Author: Arslan Ali

Published: July 14, 2025

Key Points

• Crude oil prices remain firm due to strong summer travel demand, despite the IEA's forecast of a potential supply surplus later in 2025.
• Saudi Arabia's record crude shipments to China in August bolster bullish sentiment in oil markets.
• The IEA has raised its global supply growth outlook while cutting demand forecasts, indicating potential oversupply.
• OPEC has also reduced its global demand forecast for 2026-2029, citing slower economic growth in China.
• Geopolitical risks persist, particularly regarding potential new US sanctions against Russia amid ongoing tensions in Ukraine.

Market Overview

Crude oil prices are supported by strong summer travel demand and high refinery activity, which counterbalance the IEA's forecast of a potential surplus later this year. Russia's commitment to manage overproduction and Saudi Arabia's record crude exports to China are contributing to a bullish outlook in the oil market. However, the IEA's upward revision of supply growth and downward adjustment of demand forecasts raise concerns about a looser oil market as the year progresses. Additionally, OPEC's reduction of its demand forecast for the coming years reflects worries about slower economic growth in China.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are currently trading near $3.36, having tested resistance at $3.386. The price remains within a broader bearish trend, despite short-term recovery attempts. A decisive break above $3.386 could lead to a move towards $3.471, where it would encounter significant resistance. Conversely, if downward pressure resumes, support levels at $3.176 and $3.059 may come into play.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil has rebounded to $68.66, breaking above the $67.58 resistance, which now serves as a support zone. If momentum continues, WTI could retest $68.88 and potentially extend towards $69.68 and the key resistance at $70.61. However, failure to maintain above $68.88 may lead to short-term consolidation.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading at $70.62 after a strong rebound from support at $68.51. The price is currently challenging resistance near $70.80, with a breakout above this level potentially leading to further gains towards $71.74 and $72.95. However, if the price fails to hold above $69.62, a pullback towards $68.51 and $67.32 could occur.

Conclusion

The oil market is currently characterized by a mix of bullish sentiment driven by strong demand and geopolitical factors, alongside caution due to revised supply and demand forecasts. Traders are advised to remain vigilant regarding potential geopolitical developments that could impact market dynamics.