USD/JPY Outlook: February 11, 2026

In the latest analysis, the USD/JPY currency pair is under significant downward pressure, trading below the 100-day moving average (MA) at approximately 152.800. The Japanese Yen has unexpectedly strengthened due to political clarity and responsible fiscal policies following the recent election of Prime Minister Takaichi.

Key Factors Influencing the Market

• Post-Election Yen Strength: The Yen's rise is attributed to Takaichi's election victory, which has led to a positive market response due to her commitment to responsible fiscal policies.
• Short Covering: Speculators who had short positions on the Yen are now unwinding these bets, contributing to the Yen's strength against the USD and EUR.

US Dollar Performance

The US dollar's recent performance has also played a role in the Yen's rise. A brief positive reaction followed the release of the US jobs report, which showed non-farm payrolls at 130K, significantly above the expected 70K. However, there are concerns about whether this momentum can be sustained, especially with pressure on the Federal Reserve to address high interest rates.

Upcoming Economic Data

Attention is now focused on upcoming economic data releases, including:

• Initial jobless claims later today.
• US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Friday, which could influence rate cut expectations.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is currently trading below the 100-day MA, indicating bearish momentum. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral level of 50, suggesting continued bearish pressure. Short-term traders may look for opportunities to sell on rallies towards 154.00, targeting support levels around 152.00–152.10.

Support and Resistance Levels

Support Levels	Resistance Levels
153.40	154.48 (100-day MA)
152.21	155.00
151.53	156.27 (50-day MA)

As the market awaits further economic data, the outlook for USD/JPY remains cautious, with potential for volatility based on upcoming reports and Fed commentary.