Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Coils Below Trend Resistance
By Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist
Date: April 2, 2026
Summary
The Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD) has shown signs of recovery after rebounding from Fibonacci support levels. However, it remains constrained beneath a significant trend resistance level near the January high. The upcoming weekly range breakout is critical in determining whether the current rally will continue or stall.
Current Market Conditions
As of the latest analysis, AUD/USD is trading just below the trend resistance at 7049, with key resistance levels identified at 7077 and 7136. Support levels are noted at 6930/43, 6828/37, and 6717. The immediate outlook is contingent on how the market resolves the current price compression.
Technical Analysis
In the previous outlook, it was highlighted that AUD/USD had reached uptrend resistance ahead of a Federal Reserve rate decision. A breakout attempt failed, leading to a decline of over 2.6%. The recent rebound off the 38.2% retracement level at 6930/43 has established a new weekly opening range. However, momentum indicators suggest that the market is currently overbought, indicating potential vulnerability for the long bias unless a breakout occurs.
Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance: 7049, 7077 (key), 7136
- Support: 6930/43, 6828/37 (key), 6717
Market Outlook
The bottom line indicates that AUD/USD is trading just below uptrend resistance, and the focus is on a breakout from the weekly opening range. A close above 7077 is necessary to fuel the next major leg of the rally. Conversely, losses below 6828 would suggest a more significant high is in place, indicating a potential trend reversal.
Upcoming Economic Events
Event risk for the AUD/USD pair is limited for the remainder of the week, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index scheduled for release on Friday. More significant data, including US retail sales and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is expected next week, which could impact market direction.