Gold and Silver Price Forecast Summary

Published: July 04, 2025

Market Overview

Gold prices have recently risen above $3,340 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amidst fiscal risks, trade tensions, and increasing U.S. debt projections. This uptick follows the release of U.S. labor market data, which showed an addition of 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing the forecast of 111,000. However, wage growth has moderated to 0.2%, down from 0.4% in May, easing inflation concerns and allowing for potential monetary easing by the Federal Reserve later this year.

Key Insights

• The unemployment rate has decreased to 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market while inflationary pressures may be subsiding.
• Concerns over fiscal policy and trade tensions are bolstering gold's appeal as a hedging asset.
• The Congressional Budget Office has projected that new tax and spending policies could increase the national debt by $3.4 trillion, adding strain to the U.S. economic fundamentals.

Silver Market Analysis

Silver is trading near $36.87, with potential for a breakout above $37.05, supported by a strong 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a rising trendline. The metal's dual role as both an industrial commodity and a safe-haven asset enhances its attractiveness in uncertain macroeconomic conditions.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is expected to maintain its position above $3,340, with a bullish wedge pattern indicating potential upward movement. A breakout above $3,366 could signal a continuation towards targets of $3,393 and $3,422. Conversely, a drop below critical support levels could lead to a decline towards $3,304 or $3,278.

For silver, maintaining above $36.62 is crucial for a bullish outlook, with a confirmed breakout above $37.05 potentially leading to targets of $37.31 and $37.58. A break below $36.62 could risk a pullback towards $36.12.

Conclusion

Both gold and silver are positioned to finish the week on a strong note, buoyed by a mix of robust economic data, policy uncertainty, and global economic concerns. Investors are advised to monitor these developments closely as they could significantly impact market dynamics.