Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Price Forecast: Key Support Will Test Breakout Strength

Key Points

• Bullish inverse head-and-shoulders breakout observed.
• First pullback may present new trading opportunities.
• Key support levels identified at $611 and $586–$589.
• Initial upside target set between $684 and $690.
• Longer-term targets projected at $789 and $883.

Market Analysis

The stock of Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) has recently broken out of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, indicating a bullish reversal following a bearish correction. A significant higher swing low of $443.60 was established in June, aligning with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous advance, which contributed to the formation of this bullish reversal pattern.

During the decline, the long-term 200-week moving average was successfully tested as support, enhancing the reliability of the higher swing low. The breakout's significance was further validated by reclaiming both the 50-week and 200-day moving averages.

Potential Pullback Opportunities

Following a long-term base breakout that peaked at $574.76 in December 2025, ULTA reached a record high of $714.97 before experiencing a bearish correction. The recent breakout led to a high of $637.26, suggesting the onset of the first potential pullback since the breakout. While the trend may continue upward, a pullback is anticipated, which could create new trading opportunities.

Support Levels and Targets

Short-term dynamic support is indicated by the 10-day moving average near $613, which was tested recently. Key levels to monitor for potential support during a decline include the recent higher swing low at $588.74 and the rising 20-day moving average near $586. The 20-day moving average is expected to rise above the swing low, enhancing its significance as a support indicator.

The upside target for the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is approximately $690, with the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline at $684 providing additional confluence for this target zone. If the bullish trend continues, Fibonacci extension targets suggest potential upside objectives at $788.88 (127.2% extension) or $882.68 (161.8% extension). Maintaining support during the first post-breakout pullback is crucial for keeping the $690 target in sight.