Summary of US Nonfarm Payrolls Data - October 2026

Key Highlights

• Nonfarm Payrolls: Increased by only 29,000 in September, significantly below the expected rise of 84,000.
• Unemployment Rate: Rose to 4.2%, up from the forecasted 4.1%.
• Private Payrolls: Increased by 46,000, while government employment saw a decline of 17,000.
• Wage Growth: Slowed to 0.13% month-over-month and 3.02% year-over-year.
• Revisions: August payrolls were revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, and July's figures were adjusted to -10,000.

Market Reactions

Following the release of the disappointing NFP data, the US dollar index (USDIDX) experienced a notable dip, falling by 0.13% to 101.648. The market is now pricing an 85% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in their upcoming October meeting, reflecting a dovish shift in expectations due to the weak payroll growth.

Additional Market Insights

On the same day, the US100 index reached new highs, indicating a stabilization in tech stocks despite the weak NFP report. Meanwhile, oil prices fell nearly 5% following the announcement of the release of European diesel reserves. Gold prices also took a pause, influenced more by oil market dynamics than the NFP data.