Market Analysis Summary: Tariff "Plan B" and Gold Surge

Author: Zain Vawda

Date: February 23, 2026

Overview

The U.S. Supreme Court recently ruled against the administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose global tariffs, leading to significant market reactions. This decision has prompted a shift in trade policy, with President Trump indicating a move towards a new "bridge tax" under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

Market Reactions

Following the Supreme Court's ruling, risk assets such as equities and international currencies rallied, while safe havens like gold saw increased demand. The ruling has reduced the uncertainty surrounding trade policies, allowing businesses to plan more effectively without the fear of sudden tariff hikes.

Key Factors Driving Market Movements

• Reduction of Policy Shocks: The Court's decision limits the President's ability to impose unilateral tariffs, reducing trade policy uncertainty.
• Corporate Refunds: The potential for importers to reclaim $130 billion to $175 billion in duties collected under the now-invalidated tariffs is seen as a fiscal stimulus, boosting stock prices in affected sectors.
• Global Relief: Export-heavy economies, particularly in Canada and Mexico, experienced currency appreciation as tariffs were invalidated, leading to a surge in risk assets.
• Lower Inflationary Pressures: The removal of significant tariff revenue is expected to ease inflation, allowing for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Looking Ahead: Tariff "Plan B"

In response to the ruling, President Trump announced a new round of tariffs under Section 122, which allows for a temporary surcharge of up to 15%. However, this approach may face legal challenges and is seen as a potential stalling tactic. The uncertainty surrounding these new tariffs has led to increased demand for safe haven assets.

Gold Market Analysis

Gold prices have surged, breaching the $5200 mark, with immediate resistance levels identified at $5250 and $5300. Analysts suggest that geopolitical catalysts could further influence gold's trajectory, while support levels are seen around $5100.

Conclusion

The Supreme Court's ruling has reshaped the landscape of U.S. trade policy, leading to both opportunities and uncertainties in the market. As the administration pivots to new tariff strategies, market participants remain cautious, particularly regarding the potential for further trade escalations.

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