Nvidia Earnings Preview: Can NVDA Revive the AI Trade?
By Matt Weller CFA, CMT, Head of Market Research
Date: February 23, 2026
Key Points
- Analysts expect Nvidia to report $1.52 in EPS on $65.6B in revenue.
- The company's guidance for future quarters will be crucial.
- Traders will focus on guidance, the Blackwell production ramp, and gross margins.
- Nvidia's earnings report could break the six-month price stalemate below $200.
When are Nvidia’s Earnings?
Nvidia is set to report earnings on Wednesday, February 25, after the market closes.
Earnings Expectations
Analysts predict Nvidia will report earnings of $1.52 per share and revenue of $65.6 billion. However, the focus will be on the company's guidance and performance in key growth areas, particularly its data center business.
Importance of Guidance
Traders have shifted their focus from backward-looking earnings to future guidance, especially for Nvidia, which is a leader in the AI sector. Meeting earnings expectations may not be sufficient to drive the stock higher if guidance suggests a downturn in AI capital expenditures.
Data Center Business
The performance of Nvidia's data center business will be a primary focus. Traders will look for indications of broad-based demand versus reliance on a few major buyers. Any hints of slowing growth or normalization in demand could negatively impact the stock.
Blackwell Chip Production
The ramp-up of Nvidia's Blackwell chips will also be scrutinized. Traders will assess production and shipment levels against expectations, as well as any comments on delivery timelines.
Gross Margins
Management's comments on gross margins will be critical. Traders will differentiate between transitory margin pressures and structural changes that could indicate a new lower range for margins.
Market Reaction Expectations
Traders anticipate a +/- 5.5% move in NVDA stock following the earnings release, a decrease from the +/- 10% moves seen in previous earnings reports. This reflects the stock's significant market capitalization of $4.7 billion and its potential impact on broader market sentiment.
Technical Analysis
Nvidia's stock has been consolidating between $170 and $195 for over six months. A strong earnings report could push the stock above this range, potentially retesting record highs near $210. Conversely, a cautious outlook could lead to a decline towards the 200-day moving average around $180.