Gold and Silver Market Update - June 2026
Market Overview
As of June 24, 2026, gold prices have fallen nearly 0.7%, trading below $4,100 per ounce. This decline follows a significant revision of gold price forecasts by Deutsche Bank, which has lowered its average gold price outlook for Q3 2026 to $4,300 per ounce and for Q4 2026 to $4,800 per ounce. These adjustments represent cuts of over 22% and 17%, respectively, from previous estimates.
Deutsche Bank's Revised Forecast
Previously, Deutsche Bank had projected that gold could rise towards $6,000 per ounce, driven by factors such as fiscal deficits, de-dollarization trends, and reduced exposure to U.S. Treasuries by emerging-market central banks. However, the bank's new outlook is influenced by a more hawkish stance on Federal Reserve policy and robust U.S. economic data. The bank's base-case scenario anticipates that the Fed will maintain current interest rates through the end of 2026, but warns that additional rate hikes could push gold prices down to as low as $3,800 per ounce.
Factors Contributing to Price Declines
Goldman Sachs has also revised its year-end gold forecast down by $500 to $4,900 per ounce, while Bank of America has stepped back from its previous $6,000 target, citing persistent inflation that may necessitate tighter monetary policy. Additionally, outflows from gold-backed ETFs indicate a significant drop in investor demand compared to previous bull markets. Discounts in Chinese gold prices relative to Comex suggest that Chinese imports are unlikely to provide substantial support for the market.
Current Market Conditions
Gold has experienced a decline of over 22% since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict in late February, despite typically benefiting from increased geopolitical risks. Silver has fared even worse, losing approximately one-third of its value since late February and dropping more than 5% in the latest trading session. As of the latest reports, gold futures ended down about 1.3% near $4,149 per ounce, with spot prices briefly nearing $4,090.
Impact of the U.S. Dollar and Economic Data
The strengthening U.S. dollar has further pressured precious metals, with the Dollar Index rising approximately 0.8% since the last Federal Reserve meeting. The upcoming U.S. PCE inflation report is anticipated to be a critical factor for gold prices; a stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce the hawkish narrative from the Fed, thereby supporting the dollar and Treasury yields. This scenario poses a challenge for gold, which does not yield income and competes with increasingly attractive yield-bearing assets.
Technical Analysis
Currently, gold is testing local lows in the $4,000–4,100 per ounce range, with the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearing oversold territory at just under 34. Recent trading sessions have been characterized by predominantly selling volume. Silver has also broken below its local March 23 low, reaching its weakest level since mid-December 2025.