Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Iran Sanctions and Hormuz Risks Pressure Energy Trade
By: Arslan Ali
Published: Aug 25, 2026
Key Points
- Iran sanctions and Hormuz shipping restrictions tighten global fuel supply as WTI and Brent test support, while U.S. natural gas remains well supplied.
- Refined-fuel shortages deepen as Iran sanctions disrupt trade and Hormuz risks persist, while WTI, Brent, and natural gas test key technical levels.
- Iran sanctions pressure crude trade as diesel and jet-fuel supplies tighten, while abundant U.S. gas production contrasts with global LNG constraints.
Market Overview
The article discusses the impact of Iran sanctions on the global oil market, particularly focusing on refined fuel shortages. The U.S. has intensified secondary sanctions, compelling countries and companies to reduce business with Iran, leading to a significant drop in Chinese imports of Iranian crude oil.
The Strait of Hormuz is highlighted as a critical area of risk, with Iran threatening sanctions on tankers and creating an environment of uncertainty for shipping companies. Japan's decision to withhold national crude reserves further tightens supply.
Refined Product Shortages
The article emphasizes that the primary concern is the shortage of refined products rather than crude oil itself. Data shows that imports of diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline have decreased significantly since the onset of sanctions, exacerbated by limited refining capacity in the Middle East and Russia.
Natural Gas Fundamentals
Opinions on natural gas fundamentals are mixed. Despite high storage levels in the U.S., which are expected to reach a record high by the end of October, the international market remains tight due to disruptions in supply chains, particularly from Qatar.
The article notes that while U.S. natural gas supply is abundant, the global oil products and LNG markets are constrained due to sanctions and shipping risks.
Technical Analysis
Natural Gas
Natural gas is currently trading around $2.75, holding support from a rising trendline. However, momentum is weak, with resistance levels identified at $2.77, $2.80, and $2.88. A break below $2.71 could signal further declines.
WTI Crude Oil
WTI crude has formed a double-top pattern at $87.42, with immediate support around $84. A sustained break above $87.42 could lead to bullish momentum, while a drop below $84 could push prices lower.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude is testing support levels around $90.00-$90.60, with resistance at $94.78. The market remains weak as long as prices stay below $90.60, with potential declines if support levels are breached.