Oil and Natural Gas Market Analysis
Published: February 23, 2026
Key Highlights
- WTI crude oil prices have slipped 1-1.5% towards $65.50 as geopolitical tensions ease.
- US crude inventories have decreased by 9 million barrels, providing temporary support to oil prices.
- Concerns about surplus due to non-OPEC supply growth are resurfacing, despite OPEC+ maintaining output discipline.
Market Overview
Crude oil prices have recently experienced a decline as the geopolitical premium in the market diminishes. Currently, WTI is trading around $65.50-$66.00 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of approximately 1-1.5%. Brent crude is also seeing similar trends, hovering between $70.40 and $70.88. This price adjustment indicates a broader reassessment of supply risks in the market.
US Crude Inventory Impact
The latest inventory report from the US showed a significant drawdown of 9 million barrels, bringing total inventories to approximately 419.8 million barrels. This reduction has provided a temporary boost to oil prices, but the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to increasing non-OPEC oil supply and mixed demand forecasts.
Supply and Demand Dynamics
While OPEC+ continues to exercise tight control over production, the growth in non-OPEC supply is raising concerns about potential surpluses in 2026. Demand forecasts vary widely, with estimates ranging from 850,000 to 1.4 million barrels per day. The interplay between easing geopolitical tensions and surplus concerns will be crucial in determining short-term oil price movements.
Natural Gas Market Analysis
Natural gas futures are currently trading just below $3.18, following a bounce from the $3.18-$3.32 range. The market is forming a consolidation pattern between $3.00 and $3.33, with a balance of buying and selling pressure evident in recent trading sessions. The 50-period moving average is flattening around $3.15, while the 200-period moving average is trending upwards, indicating a potential uptrend.
WTI Oil Technical Analysis
WTI crude is facing resistance just below $65.69, struggling to break past the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $65.78. Recent candlestick patterns suggest indecision in the market, with key support levels at $65.04, $64.43, and $63.83. A break below $65.04 could lead to a significant downward shift, while reclaiming $66.00 may open the path for a retest of $67.00.
Brent Crude Technical Analysis
Brent crude is currently testing the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $70.22 after failing to maintain gains above $72.31. If this support level breaks, the next targets for a decline would be $69.57 and $68.93. The rising trendline from $66.84 remains intact, and a rebound above $71.00 could shift focus back to $72.31.
Conclusion
The oil and natural gas markets are currently navigating a complex landscape of geopolitical factors, supply dynamics, and technical indicators. Traders should remain vigilant of key support and resistance levels as well as inventory reports that could influence price movements in the near term.