MarketPulse Summary: Dow Jones Update as Markets Prepare for Upcoming US CPI
Author: Elior Manier
Date: 11 July 2025
Market Overview
Equity markets have shown fluctuations over the past week, particularly affecting the Dow Jones, which has lagged behind the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The latter indices have been reaching all-time highs, buoyed by the performance of major tech stocks, especially Nvidia (NVDA), which recently achieved a $4 trillion market cap.
Current Market Sentiment
The global equity landscape is predominantly negative, influenced by tariff uncertainties that are overshadowing bullish sentiments. The ongoing TACO Trade theme has been a focal point, but concerns about tariffs are resurfacing.
The Dow Jones, being more industrial-focused, reflects a broader market picture, indicating that while the economy remains robust, uncertainties regarding the US economic outlook are hindering a clear risk-on sentiment across all indices.
Upcoming Economic Data
Markets are gearing up for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release, expected to show a 0.3% increase. This report is anticipated to provide insights into the potential for stagflationary pressures and the impact of recent tariff extensions.
Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Weekly Chart
Since the lows of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Dow has more than doubled, indicating a strong upward trend despite prevailing uncertainties. However, the inability to surpass February's all-time highs raises concerns about potential bearish trends.
Daily and Intraday Analysis
On the daily charts, mixed signals are present. While there are no signs of bearish divergence, the failure to break previous highs suggests caution. A bullish crossover of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (Golden Cross) offers a positive outlook, yet the market remains sensitive to tariff discussions.
Intraday analysis shows a slight bullish sentiment, but the breaking of a steep upward trendline indicates a need for a more sustainable growth pattern. The upcoming CPI report is crucial for determining the market's direction in the following weeks.
Conclusion
As the market awaits the CPI data, the key pivot level of 44,000 for the Dow Jones will be critical. Maintaining above this level could support a bullish or neutral outlook, while a drop below may reignite tariff fears and bearish sentiment.
Investors are advised to prepare for potential volatility as the market reacts to upcoming economic indicators.