Market Summary - June 17, 2026

Market Overview

The S&P 500 opened slightly higher with a gain of 0.1%, while the NASDAQ saw stronger gains of 0.6%. This uptick was primarily driven by a rebound in semiconductor stocks following previous declines. Brent crude prices stabilized around $79.50, and the EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.16. The market is currently focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting under the new Chairman Kevin Warsh, particularly regarding interest rate projections and the subsequent press conference.

Geopolitical Developments

President Trump has been making erratic statements regarding the Iran deal during the G7 summit in Evian, France. He suggested that the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened soon while also indicating that the current memorandum is not a final agreement, warning of potential military action if he is dissatisfied with developments. The market seems to be discounting his rhetoric for now, but skepticism remains regarding a definitive resolution to the US-Iran situation.

Monetary Policy Insights

Current indications suggest that interest rates will remain unchanged, as any deviation would be a significant market event. The session will be led by Chairman Warsh, with expectations for a more dovish tone that may temper further rate hike expectations in the US. The Dot Plot will be crucial; any significant divergence between Warsh's comments and the Committee's projections could lead to a recovery in the US dollar, especially as confidence wanes regarding the ECB's monetary tightening.

Sector Analysis

The semiconductor sector is experiencing a recovery, notably led by Applied Materials, which saw an 8.9% increase following a partnership announcement with EssilorLuxottica for AR and AI-powered eyewear. Other companies in the sector, such as Lam Research and ASML, also reported gains. In contrast, mature software firms like Adobe, Cognizant, and Workday are underperforming, possibly due to institutional skepticism towards SaaS business models and end-of-quarter portfolio adjustments.

Technical Analysis

The US100 index has resumed its medium-term uptrend after a retracement towards the 23.6% Fibonacci level, clearing the 30,000 threshold. The 50-period EMA at approximately 28,600 serves as key support. The RSI is around the 50 level, indicating a lack of clear directional bias, while the MACD shows a sell signal, suggesting that previous upward momentum is waning.

Corporate News

• La-Z-Boy (LZB.US): Reported significant Q4 outperformance with adjusted EPS of $1.26, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.82.
• Lionsgate Studios (LION.US): Shares fell 6.5% amid reports that Netflix is not interested in acquiring the studio.
• SpaceX (SPCX.US): Shares are down 4.3%, marking a potential losing session as the company awaits its expected addition to the Nasdaq 100 index.