Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Brent Eyes $119 While NatGas Bears Defend the $2.83 Ceiling

Author: Arslan Ali

Published: May 01, 2026

Key Points

• Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have significantly impacted oil production in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE.
• WTI crude oil is maintaining support at $103.30, with a target resistance level at $110.80.
• Brent crude remains bullish above $107.60, with potential upside towards $119–$123.80.

Market Overview

Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing US-Iran conflict, are major factors affecting crude oil fundamentals. The disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have led to significant production losses from Gulf producers, exacerbating logistical challenges due to rerouted tanker traffic. Brent crude is particularly affected due to its reliance on Middle Eastern oil, leading to increased shipping costs.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has tempered its global demand forecasts, citing the economic drag from the conflict, which may lead to a contraction in demand.

WTI Crude Oil Analysis

WTI crude oil is currently around $106.10, supported by strong domestic production and inventories in the US. The price is holding above the key support level of $103.30, indicating a bullish trend. If the price can maintain this support, it may push towards $108 and $110.80. A breakout above $110.80 could accelerate the price towards $116.50.

Brent Crude Oil Outlook

Brent crude is trading at approximately $112.00, remaining above the $107.60 support level, which aligns with the lower boundary of its rising channel. The uptrend is supported by a series of higher lows since mid-April. A sustained move above $115.00 could lead to targets of $119.20 and potentially $123.80. Conversely, a drop below $107.60 could signal a trend reversal.

Natural Gas Price Analysis

Natural gas is currently trading around $2.81, facing resistance near the $2.80–$2.83 zone, which coincides with the 50 EMA and channel resistance. The market structure appears bearish, with significant selling pressure evident. A failure to break above $2.83 could lead to a decline towards $2.68 and $2.60. However, a breakout above $2.93 would indicate a potential shift in market sentiment.

Conclusion

The oil market is navigating through significant geopolitical challenges, with Brent and WTI showing bullish tendencies if key support levels hold. Natural gas, on the other hand, is struggling against bearish pressures, with critical resistance levels to watch. Traders should remain vigilant of geopolitical developments and their potential impact on supply and pricing dynamics.