Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Hormuz Crisis Sends Oil to $107 – Is $115 the Next Stop?

Author: Arslan Ali

Updated: April 30, 2026

Key Points

• The Strait of Hormuz crisis has halted 20% of global oil supply, triggering a significant oil shock.
• WTI crude oil prices surged from $83 to $107, but an RSI near 80 indicates a potential pullback to the $100–$102 range.
• Brent crude has increased from $88 to $110.68, with bulls targeting the critical resistance level of $115.02.

Geopolitical Disruptions Impacting Oil Supply

The ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted oil supply, with approximately 20% of the world's oil production coming to a near halt. This situation has led to the largest oil shock experienced globally, as Middle Eastern oil production dropped to 9.1 million barrels per day in April. The cumulative losses from the conflict have already surpassed 850 million barrels over the initial two months.

In the U.S., commercial oil stocks fell by 6.2 million barrels in the week leading up to April 24, totaling 459.5 million barrels, which is just above the five-year average. Despite this, refinery inputs have increased while imports have decreased. The UAE's exit from OPEC adds another layer of uncertainty, but the primary concern remains the lack of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

Current Oil Storage and Production Outlook

Despite the geopolitical tensions, U.S. oil storage levels remain relatively healthy. The EIA reported a 103 Bcf inflow for the week ending April 17, raising total storage to 2,063 Bcf, which is significantly higher than last year and above the five-year average. Mild weather has facilitated continued gas injections into storage, and the U.S. remains a major LNG exporter, supporting demand.

Overall, oil fundamentals appear weak due to production strains, while natural gas inventories are robust enough to withstand summer demand without significant issues.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is currently trading at $2.632, continuing its downward trend within a defined bearish channel since late March. A recent breach of the $2.664 support level has led to testing the $2.50 demand zone. The RSI indicates strong selling pressure, and if prices fall below $2.568, further declines to $2.46 and $2.36 could occur. Conversely, a breakout above $2.806 could signal a significant upward movement.

WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis

WTI crude oil is priced at $107.27, recovering from an April low of $83. The price remains within a rising channel, with both short-term and long-term averages trending upwards. However, the RSI nearing 80 suggests a potential pullback, with initial support levels around $102.79-$100. A close below $100 could shift market sentiment towards bearish.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Brent crude is trading at $110.68, having risen from an April 17 low of $88. The price has broken above a key trendline and is currently testing the $112 level. The RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting a possible pullback. Initial support levels are at $107.61 and $103.39. A close above $112 could lead to further gains towards $115.20 and potentially $119.30.

Conclusion

The ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz continues to exert significant pressure on oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude experiencing substantial increases. However, technical indicators suggest that a pullback may be imminent. Meanwhile, natural gas remains in a bearish trend, with potential for further declines unless a significant breakout occurs.