Ethereum Price Prediction 2026: Double Top Points to $1,650

Author: Alejandro Arrieche

Published: January 1, 2026

Key Points

• Pectra upgrade stabilizes Ethereum transaction fees.
• Ethereum remains the leader in DeFi and real-world assets.
• ETH has a 50% chance of dropping to $1,650; a move above $3,300 could invalidate this outlook.

Overview

Ethereum has had a remarkable year, rebounding from $1,400 in April to reach a new all-time high in August, largely due to significant technical upgrades. The Pectra upgrade has notably improved scalability and reduced transaction fees, addressing many criticisms of the network.

Transaction Fees and Network Upgrades

Post-Pectra, transaction fee volatility has decreased, allowing for more predictable costs for users. The Fusaka upgrade further enhances Ethereum's capabilities, solidifying its position as a reliable platform for decentralized applications.

Market Dynamics

Despite its price surge, Ethereum has faced selling pressure due to external factors, including geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies. The so-called "Ethereum killers" like Solana and BNB have not significantly impacted Ethereum's dominance in the market.

Market Share and Adoption

Ethereum leads the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector with a total value locked (TVL) of $68 billion, representing over 68% market share. Its dominance extends to real-world assets, where it holds a 66% market share, indicating strong institutional adoption.

Price Prediction and Technical Analysis

Analyzing the weekly chart, a double-top pattern at $4,000 suggests a potential decline. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a bearish trend, with ETH breaking key support levels. A significant drop to $1,650 is possible unless ETH surpasses $3,300, which would signal a bullish reversal.

Near-Term Outlook

The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts may improve market conditions. Key support levels to watch include $2,850 and $2,800. A break below these levels could lead to a deeper correction, while a rise above $3,300 could indicate a bullish trend towards $3,900.

Conclusion

While Ethereum faces potential bearish trends, positive market conditions and institutional adoption could reverse the downtrend. Traders should remain vigilant and monitor key price levels as 2026 unfolds.