Natural Gas Price Forecast: Key Insights

Author: Bruce Powers

Published: April 21, 2026

Market Overview

Natural gas is currently experiencing a consolidation phase between key moving averages, with a bearish structure prevailing. The market is testing resistance near the 20-day moving average at $2.89 and support near the 10-day moving average at $2.79. The recent price action indicates a potential for a breakout or breakdown as the market compresses near these critical levels.

Short-Term Price Action

On Tuesday, natural gas prices pulled back slightly below the 10-day average, creating a lower daily low at $2.79. However, the market quickly recovered, suggesting short-term strength as it aims to close above the 10-day average, potentially marking a nine-day closing high.

Bearish Structure and Resistance Levels

Despite the short-term strength, the overall price structure remains bearish. The market faces significant resistance near the 50-day moving average at approximately $2.97 and a downtrend line. A critical lower swing high at $3.00 could signal a bull reversal if surpassed, opening the door to higher price levels, particularly the 100-day moving average and a lower swing high at $3.19.

Breakout Potential

A convergence of the downtrend line and an uptrend line around May 13 creates a potential breakout window. A resolution in either direction could lead to a continuation of the prevailing trend. If the market breaks upward, it may rally towards the 100-day moving average before a potential decline. Conversely, a bearish signal would emerge if prices drop below last week’s low of $2.72, with targets at $2.58 and further down to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $2.31.

Conclusion

Natural gas prices are currently caught between near-term moving average compression and a broader bearish trend. Traders should monitor key resistance and support levels closely, as the market is poised for a significant move in either direction.

About the Author

Bruce Powers is a seasoned finance professional with over 20 years of experience in financial markets. He holds an MBA and is a CMT® charter holder, having served as head of trading strategy at hedge funds and as a corporate advisor for trading firms.