Market Analysis Summary - March 20, 2026
Author: Axel Rudolph, Market Analyst
Publication Date: March 20, 2026
Macro Update
Oil Market Retreats
Oil prices have seen a decline as the US and its allies have taken steps to increase supply and ensure safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil has dropped by approximately 1-3%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has decreased by about 2%.
Supply Response Builds
US officials have indicated potential releases from strategic reserves and the possibility of easing sanctions on Iranian oil. Additionally, production in North Dakota is expected to rise as wells come back online.
Geopolitical Factors
Despite the pullback on Friday, Brent crude remains up about 4% for the week due to recent attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, while WTI is on track for a weekly decline.
Central Banks' Stance
Markets are adjusting to a tighter global policy outlook, with fading expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. There are also potential rate hikes being priced in for the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB).
Bond Yields Surge
A global bond sell-off has led to a significant increase in short-dated yields, with UK two-year gilt yields rising by around 88 basis points this month, driven by concerns over energy-induced inflation.
Equities and Forex Mixed
Wall Street closed lower and remains below key technical levels. The US dollar weakened by about 1% over the week as other central banks adopted a more hawkish stance.
DAX 40 Analysis
The DAX 40 index is expected to recover from its low of 22,760 on March 19 but may face resistance around the high of 23,180. If this level is exceeded, the March 13 low of 23,293 may be targeted.
Short-term Outlook: Bearish while below the March 19 high of 23,180.
Medium-term Outlook: Bearish while below the March 18 high of 23,957.
AUD/USD Analysis
The AUD/USD currency pair has rebounded from its support level at $0.7000, returning to the middle of its trading range from the past month. A rise above this week's high of $0.7150 is necessary to revisit the March peak at $0.7187.
Short-term Outlook: Bullish while above the March 19 low of $0.7000, targeting the $0.7147 - $0.7158 area.
Medium-term Outlook: Bullish while above the early March low of $0.6945, aiming for the January 2023 peak at $0.7158.
Copper Price Analysis
Copper prices are attempting to recover from a four-month low of $5.2973 reached on Thursday. A bullish reversal pattern could be confirmed with a daily close above Thursday's high of $5.5635, potentially leading to a target range of $5.7000 - $5.8000.
Resistance may be encountered between the February to mid-March lows at $5.6280 - $5.6563.
Short-term Outlook: Neutral while holding above the March 19 low of $5.2973.
Medium-term Outlook: Neutral while trading above the March 19 low; a failure to hold this level would turn the forecast bearish.
Charts
Daily candlestick charts for DAX 40, AUD/USD, and Copper are available for further analysis.