Summary of "Vanguard Effect" Lifts Bitcoin? Key Levels to Watch as BTC Recovers

Published: December 3, 2025

Author: Alejandro Arrieche

Key Highlights

• Vanguard, a $3 trillion asset management firm, has lifted its ban on cryptocurrencies, allowing investments in ETFs linked to various tokens, including Bitcoin.
• Market sentiment is improving ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
• Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a strong recovery, bouncing back from a low of $85,000, with a 7% gain over the past week.

The Vanguard Effect

The recent decision by Vanguard to permit cryptocurrency-related ETFs is seen as a significant development in the market. This move is expected to facilitate substantial inflows into Bitcoin-linked ETFs, potentially leading to increased demand for Bitcoin itself. Despite this positive outlook, recent data indicates that net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs were modest, totaling only $58 million, suggesting that investors remain cautious amid ongoing market volatility.

Market Sentiment and FOMC Meeting

Market sentiment has notably improved, as reflected by the Fear and Greed Index, which has risen from a record low of 11 to 22. Although still in the "fear" zone, this rebound may encourage risk-takers to believe that the market has reached its bottom. Analysts are anticipating a 25 basis points rate cut in the upcoming FOMC meeting, which could further bolster market confidence.

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin

Bitcoin has established a strong support level at $80,000, with an uptrend forming on the 4-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into positive territory, indicating bullish momentum. Current trading volumes favor buyers, with delta volumes at 83% since the bounce from $80,000. Key resistance levels are identified at $87,500 and $95,000, with a potential target of $100,000, representing a 7.5% upside in the near term.

Conclusion

The combination of Vanguard's policy shift and improving market sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting suggests that Bitcoin may be poised for a significant recovery. Investors are advised to monitor key price levels and market indicators closely as the situation develops.